Write On Sports LLC - "Major League Soccer Playoffs" by Jeff Bull

Major League Soccer Playoffs

2006-10-19 20:47:38 | By: Jeff Bull

The 32-game march through Major League Soccer’s 2006 regular season came to an end last weekend. On Saturday, at 2 p.m. Eastern time, the playoffs begin. From damp April, through muggy August, to the deepening chill of October, those 32 games whittled twelve teams to eight - though not a few of those eight strayed uncomfortably close to the knife’s edge. But the close calls don’t matter anymore; every one of those eight teams kicks off the weekend with a clean slate and a shot at proceeding to the next round, and the next. It bears noting that those two steps - which involve only three games - take us to MLS Cup.

It’s a short road to the prize, but, as soccer pundits across the country have pointed out, no team has found a low, easy road to reach it. There are no favorites. The first-round format serves as the first obstacle. It effectively levels the playing field by forcing the higher-seeded team into a two-game, home-and-home series against the lower-seed; that the first game takes place at the home ground of the lower-seeded team only hobbles the top team a little more. But taller obstacle arises from the inability of any team to rise above the pack this season. In fact, the two teams on top of the respective conferences may be in the deepest trouble of the bunch - though, the phrase “may be” bears emphasis.

With that in mind, it’s time to look at the pairings and make what conclusions one can.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

DC United (1) v. Red Bull New York (4)

Taken out of context, this series looks like an easy call. In every category, from goals scored, to goals conceded, home record and away record, DC United owns their New York rivals. Then why is everyone down to DC United’s fan-base wary of this series? The answer is DC’s late season swoon. After jumping out to what proved to be an insurmountable lead, DC ended the season by compiling a 2-3-5 (W-L-T) record over the final ten games. The defense stands as the chief culprit in the slide; they’re conceding goals so sloppy their coach, Peter Nowak, worried that his team gives up goals “like an under-12 team.” And in the regular season finale, that wasn’t far off the mark: loose marking allowed two goals, while a collective failure led to the third. With their offense not firing as it once did, DC’s margin of error has shrunk to the vanishing point.

But the big question in this series is whether Red Bull can take advantage. Apart from a 16-year-old kid named Josmer Altidore, Red Bull lacks a steady goal-scoring threat at forward. Most of their starting midfield has aged to the wrong side of 30 - with a few key players going deep into the decade. The question of quality compounds the question of whether they’ll be able to run with a younger DC team: a roster littered with utility players surround one of the most modest collections of star-power in the league. Still, they defend well enough, so if Red Bull can take a lead, they might have just enough to preserve it.

New England Revolution (2) v. Chicago Fire (3)

To some observers - well, this observer - this is the best post-season pairing of the bunch. Both New England and Chicago finished strong, taking 20 and 19 points from 30 available, respectively. On top of that, they played one another stronger away from home than they did at home. In the end, Chicago not only took the season series, but they controversially eliminated New England for this year’s edition of the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup. Bad blood doesn’t get much worse or competition closer.

Both teams boast strong defenses - New England ended as the league’s best - and attacks that can hit from multiple angles. Not a few players on both teams’ benches would start elsewhere in the league, which means a game can turn on late substitutions. Chicago plays the prettier soccer of the two, but, over the season’s final five games, New England played the more effective game. If these teams didn’t face each other in the first round, either would enter the tournament as the closest thing to a favorite. In a post-season littered with tough calls, this series promises the best, hardest-fought soccer on offer.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Houston Dynamo (2) v. Chivas USA (3)

These teams surprised regular observers of MLS, but for different reasons. Houston arguably under-achieved this season, playing erratically, even indifferently, in spite of an impressive roster; the relocation from the Bay Area - they played in San Jose just last season - to the muggy heat of Houston probably played a role. As for Chivas, they went from being the league’s worst team in 2005 to threatening to finish higher than third place in the West. Put those together and it’s another intriguing playoff match-up.

The consensus is that Houston holds the edge in the series. Houston’s starting eleven has had more time together and has the bigger names from defense through forward. For their part, Chivas owes much of its second-year revival to head coach, Bob Bradley, who reconstructed the squad by bringing in game-ready rookies and high-quality veterans to compliment a stable of players from the Mexican “mother club,” Chivas de Guadalajara. With half the players named up top currently nursing injuries, though, Chivas needs to make the most of the opening, home leg of the series, where they are especially strong on defense; carrying a good result back to Houston could make or break their chances to advance to the Western Conference finals.

FC Dallas (1) v. Colorado Rapids (4)

The caveat about winning big on the first leg applies in spades to the Colorado Rapids; only Red Bull travels worse than the team from Denver. Add to that the fact that FC Dallas soundly outplayed Colorado in 2006 and one might see the makings of a blowout. For a number of reasons, though, some notable pundits singled out this series as the likeliest upset of the opening round. To begin, nearly everyone noted that this same Colorado team sent Dallas packing in the first round of the 2005 playoffs. And the big knock on Dallas is pretty straightforward: apart from Colorado, they lost more regular season games than ANY other team in the playoffs. They also tended to lose those games in bunches, whether it was the three consecutive league games dropped in August or the four losses of the season’s final six games that kept stalling their claim to the Western Conference title.

For all that, this year looks different than last. In 2005, Colorado didn’t share a league-worst goals-against tally; they allowed 49 goals this season, 12 more than in 2005, and many of those in lop-sided losses. They have also struggled on the opposite side of the field; only the Columbus Crew, who failed to make the playoffs at all, scored fewer goals. Moreover, FC Dallas’ league-best home record matches nicely with Colorado’s dismal road performance. Insofar as Dallas has turned conceding devastating goals into something of a specialty, they’ve got more than enough firepower to get them back - and Colorado looks only too happy to oblige.

That’s how the four series stack up. By early afternoon on the West Coast, we should have a better idea of which teams entered the post-season primed to play. With one of the two hottest teams - the Chicago Fire and New England Revolution - heading home after the first round, we can expect a wide-open field to open a little more.

[Editor's Note: For an in-depth primer on all the match-ups, check out Jeff Bull's blog.]