Write On Sports LLC - "Assessing the NFL's Contenders" by Troy Somero

Assessing the NFL's Contenders

2006-10-18 21:51:12 | By: Troy Somero

Now that the NFL season is more than a third of the way complete, the top teams are slowly being separated from the rest of the pack. Most people believe that the Bears are the team to beat at 6-0 and will be a Super Bowl favorite, despite the fact that they needed an Arizona collapse (and that's putting it nicely) to maintain their unbeaten record. Others look to the Colts as the team to beat, because they are always the team to beat. As is usual for this time of year, the Colts are undefeated and their offense is as explosive as ever, sans Edgerrin James. Then, of course, there are teams of various other stereotypes, like New England (the rings do the talking) and San Diego (they have whooped up on many opponents this year). Despite the impressive margins of victories and wonderful records of these aforementioned teams, none of them have established themselves as truly serious Super Bowl contenders as we near the midway point in the NFL season.

The real teams to be impressed with are the ones that have earned their above .500 records to this point in the season. Sure, Chicago might be 6-0, but teams like the Giants and the Jaguars have more impressive wins to this point in the season. Using my own system of separation (yes, this is more subjective than objective), I have divided the "contenders" into three groups: the so-called top teams that have earned their way to the top based on their difficulty of schedule, the top teams that have been promoted to the position based on their record/recent history/hype, and the teams in the playoff hunt that will definitely benefit from their tough schedules should they make it to the playoffs.

Let's take a look at each group…

Note: The groupings are based on wins and games against "quality opponents" - that is, teams above .500 in the league that are also on this list (with the exception of Pittsburgh – see endnote). Game results highlighted in bold are results against these quality opponents.

The True Contenders: teams who have had the toughest schedules so far this season and have won (played at least three quality opponents and beaten two of them):

1. Denver: L-@STL, W-KC, W-@NE, W-BAL, W-OAK - 2-1 vs. quality opponents; 4-1 overall

1a. Seattle: W-@DET, W-ARI, W-NYG, L-@CHI, W-@STL - 2-1; 4-1

3. Jacksonville: W-DAL, W-PIT, L-@IND, L-@WAS, W-NYJ - 2-1; 3-2

4. Carolina: L-ATL, L-@MIN, W-@TB, W-NO, W-CLE, W-@BAL - 2-2; 3-2

Could the Super Bowl really be Denver vs. Seattle? What about Indy vs. Chicago, or San Diego vs. Philadelphia? Well, according to difficulty of schedule these two teams have proven themselves the most this year. Not only do Denver and Seattle have stellar records, but they also have stellar records against quality opponents. Any above-average team (ahem, Chicago) could have an undefeated record at this point in the season against an average schedule, but it takes a truly tough and playoff-prepared team to be successful against other playoff teams early in the year. However, the four teams in this group have established themselves as the crème-of-the-crop because (1) they possess winning records despite very difficult schedules to this point in the season, (2) all their losses are quality losses (I consider the Jacksonville loss to Washington a quality loss because it was in Washington…look how the Jags made up for it by lighting the Jets up for 41 points), and (3) do not have losing records against quality opponents. If a team can win most of the easy games, split the tough ones, and finish with a winning record, there is a good chance that team will still be Super Bowl ready by January, especially if the majority of its opponents are quality opponents –the same type it will meet in January.

The Overrated Teams: teams that still have plenty to prove based on their scheduled opponents as of Week 6 (have beaten/played two or less quality opponents):

1. Chicago: W-@GB, W-DET, W-@MIN, W-SEA, W-BUF, W-@ARI - 2-0; 6-0

2. Indianapolis: W-@NYG, W-HOU, W-JAX, W-TEN, W-@NYJ - 2-0; 5-0

3. New England: W-BUF, W-@NYJ, L-DEN, W-@CIN, W-MIA - 1-1; 4-1

3a. San Diego: W-@OAK, W-TEN, L-BAL, W-PIT, W-@SF - 1-1; 4-1

5. Minnesota: W-@WAS, W-CAR, L-CHI, L-@BUF, W-DET - 1-1; 3-2

6. Baltimore: W-@TB, W-OAK, W-@CLE, L-@DEN, L-@CAR - 0-2; 3-2

Every analyst and his play-by-play buddy/sidekick are convinced that the Bears are the best team in the NFL. Personally, I'm not convinced, especially after the Arizona game on Monday night. The Bears play in the NFC North, without a doubt one of the worst divisions in football (see Green Bay, Detroit). In fact, putting Minnesota in this group is a stretch in of itself, but it's only fair because the Vikings do have a winning record. The Bears win over Seattle is very impressive, but that's also a win against a Shawn Alexander-less Seattle team…with Mike Holmgren as the coach (anyone who saw his game management against the Giants and the Bears knows why Seattle lost the Super Bowl in February). I love the Bears' game plan – tough-nosed defense, balanced offense, and discipline-oriented approach – but if they played in the NFC East or NFC South they might be a stretch to make the playoffs.

As for the rest of the group:

- Indianapolis: definitely worthy of being in the True Contender group if they had one additional quality game at this point in the season.

- New England: as bad as the NFC North is, the AFC East might be worse. The win at Cincinnati was definitely a quality win, but the marshmallow schedule remaining (including @BUF, NYJ, @GB, DET, @MIA, HOU, @TEN) means that the Patriots could lose the rest of their quality games and still go 11-5.

- San Diego: the Chargers have only one quality win - against a team that needed a footnote just to be on this list – and their loss is against the second-worst team in this article.

- Minnesota: same situation as Chicago, except that the Vikings have a worse record, are a weaker team, and would lose to Carolina by 20 points if the teams played again today.

- Baltimore: probably the second-worst team in this article, based on the fact that the Ravens still have no reliable offense after all these years, have not beaten a quality opponent so far this season, and the only quality opponent they play outside the division for the rest of the season is New Orleans…this week. Do not bet on the Ravens if they make the playoffs (which probably will not happen anyway).

The Teams to Watch: teams without stellar records right now who may ultimately benefit in the long run from tough schedules if they make playoffs (played at least two quality teams and have plenty more on their schedule):

1. New Orleans: W-@CLE, W-@GB, W-ATL, L-@CAR, W-TB, W-PHI - 2-1; 5-1

2. New York Giants: L-IND, W-PHI, L-@SEA, W-WAS, W-@ATL - 2-2; 3-2

3. St. Louis: W-DEN, L-@SF, W-@ARI, W-DET, W-@GB, L-SEA - 1-1; 4-2

4. Cincinnati: W-@KC, W-CLE, W-PIT, L-NE, L-@TB - 1-1; 3-2

5. Philadelphia: W-@HOU, L-NYG, W-@SF, W-GB, W-DAL, L-@NO - 1-2; 4-2

6. Atlanta: W-@CAR, W-TB, L-@NO, W-ARI, L-NYG - 1-2; 3-2

7. Dallas: L-JAX, W-@WAS, W-@TEN, L-@PHI, W-HOU - 0-2; 3-2

This is the group that is the most fun to debate about. There are the Saints, who are probably the only team in the league that really have not played a bad game all year, despite their loss to Carolina. The Giants are a very strong 3-2 with the toughest schedule in the NFL this season and possessors of two of the "best" losses this year: versus the Colts and at Seattle. St. Louis and Cincinnati juxtapose one another at 1-1 versus quality opponents, with the media celebrating the Rams as a pleasant surprise and chastising the Bengals as a disappointment. Philadelphia, Atlanta and Dallas all have above .500 records but losing records against quality teams; however, with the amount of quality opponents these teams have left this season, by the end of December everyone that watches football consistently should be able to separate these teams relatively easily from one another.

The teams in the first two groupings are clearly the favorites at this point in the season, while the teams in the third grouping are considered the "underdogs", the "also-rans", the "long-shots". However, I believe that it is from these first and/or third groupings that the teams with the best chances to win the Super Bowl will emerge in the long run, because if a team does not play a playoff-caliber schedule during the season it is unreasonable to think that that same team will be more capable to advance against a playoff-caliber schedule in the postseason - especially because all the teams that play in the postseason are inherently postseason teams. Thus, the reason I give the first and third groupings the best odds at making the Super Bowl is because they have more quality opponents than the second grouping, and to beat the best one must play against the best:

Grouping 1
- Denver: quality opponents played and record against them: 2-1; quality opponents left to play: 6
- Seattle: 2-1; 4
- Jacksonville: 2-1; 4
- Carolina: 2-2; 8
Grouping Overall: 8-3 (.727 winning % vs. quality opponents); 22 (5.5 quality opp./team)

Grouping 2
- Chicago: 2-0; 4
- Indianapolis: 2-0; 6
- New England: 1-1; 4
- San Diego: 1-1; 5
- Minnesota: 1-1; 4
- Baltimore: 0-2; 6
Grouping Overall: 5-4 (.556); 29 (4.8)

Grouping 3
- New Orleans: 2-1; 8
- New York Giants: 2-2; 7
- St. Louis: 1-1; 5
- Cincinnati: 1-1; 8
- Philadelphia: 1-2; 6
- Atlanta: 1-2; 7
- Dallas: 0-2; 7
Grouping Overall: 8-11 (.444); 48 (6.3)

After looking at these three groupings, a few things stand out. First, this is all hypothetical – so let's assume for the sake of the argument that all of the teams in the article finish with the exact same record.

Second, the Top Teams at this point in the season will clearly be divided at the end of the year between the those who have proven their status as top teams based on their schedule strength (Denver, Carolina) and those that will still have something to prove (Seattle, Jacksonville). For example, a record of 10-6 for Denver will be much more impressive in January than a record of 10-6 for Jacksonville, based on each team's strength of schedule. This extends down to the second grouping as well. In the long run, the Colts (and the Ravens, if they turn around their sub-par "quality" record) will move up to the first grouping because half of their opponents this season will be quality opponents, whereas teams like the Bears and the Chargers do not face as difficult of schedules this season.

Third, teams like the Saints, the Bengals, the Falcons, and the NFC East minus Washington will also move up to the Top Team category if they have winning records and make the playoffs because of their difficult schedules throughout the season, versus teams like Jacksonville, Seattle, Chicago and San Diego that face weaker competition and therefore will not have the playoff-caliber schedule to prove themselves before the playoffs begin.

To make a long story a little less long, the teams that will have the best chance to win the Super Bowl will be the ones that (1) make the playoffs and (2) have played against a playoff-caliber schedule that will ensure they have the experience necessary to advance to the Super Bowl.

Based on this assumption, I predict the following teams will be in the playoffs:

AFC: DEN, JAX, IND, NE, SD, CIN
NFC: SEA, CAR, CHI, NYG, STL, PHI

…but, the following teams in will be in Super Bowl contention:

AFC: DEN, IND
NFC: CAR, NYG, STL, PHI

These Super Bowl teams are teams that have succeeded so far this season, and, if they make the playoffs, will have the playoff-caliber experience to put them over the top of other teams they face in January that lack a similar degree of experience. Mark it down: you will not see the Bears, Colts, Patriots, Chargers, Vikings, or Ravens in the Super Bowl this year. In fact, you are just as likely to see Chicago/Indy as you are to see Giants/Philly, and Giants/Philly would probably be a better game.

Endnote re the defending champions: Pittsburgh is off of these lists as of now because of its 2-3 record, including a 0-3 record against quality teams (W-MIA, L-@JAX, L-CIN, L-@SD, W-KC). However, because they are the defending champions and because they have a difficult schedule throughout the rest of year, they are definitely worthy of consideration as a "quality team".