Write On Sports LLC - "Intelligent Design: Miami Heat" by Andrew Berg

Intelligent Design: Miami Heat

2006-10-12 22:27:39 | By: Andrew Berg

When talking about team sports, we often refer to a team’s best player as its alpha-male, or some such thing. In reality, the metaphorical alpha-male- the most dominant member of the pack- need not be one with the most productive or successful player on a team. There exists no better example of this difference than the current constitution of the Miami Heat, where Shaq is undoubtedly the team’s emotional leader and on-court general, but where Dwayne Wade is clearly the best player on the team, if not in the league. That dynamic came about intentionally, one of the most masterful strokes in the illustrious personnel career of Pat Riley. Since Wade’s physical ability out-distanced his inter-personal strength, or even his credibility, when he came into the league, Riley saw the opportunity to acquire Shaq as an investment in the team’s success in the short-term, and in Wade’s leadership ability in the long-term.

Two great seasons and one NBA title later, Riley’s big investment has already paid tremendous dividends. The Heat look to remain extremely competitive in the near term, probably as prohibitive favorites in the Eastern Conference in 2006-2007. The bigger question revolves around what happens when Shaq is no longer viable as a second option, or even as a decoy, and the direction the team will take once Wade assumes the alpha-male title to go with his status as one of the three best players in the NBA. Like many dominant wings before him, Wade will require good complementary players and lots of depth, but the Heat do not need to blow their resources on another offensive dynamo to go alongside Flash.

Presumably, Riley has slept well since winning his first Championship since his days with the Showtime Lakers, but if anything has kept him awake at night, it is probably the thought of paying an immobile, fragile, and burned-out O’Neal $20 million in 2009-2010. In case that does not seem terrifying enough, consider how much money that is when I write it this way: $20,000,000. Obviously, the Heat swallowed the bitter luxury tax pill long ago, and the added revenue of becoming one of the NBA’s premier franchises has almost certainly made that expense negligible. Still, if you think a GM can easily create a strong supporting cast with such a hamstrung payroll, ask Kevin McHale. If nothing else, depth becomes a serious challenge, and the 28th or 29th pick in the draft will not provide reinforcements very rapidly.

So far, Miami’s strategy for finding worthwhile supporting players has been to use Shaq’s lobbying skills as a tractor beam for veterans in search of a ring before retirement. This high-risk, high-reward strategy has worked for Miami so far, successfully integrating the contracts, egos, and playing styles of Alonzo Mourning, Gary Payton, and Antoine Walker, all of whom played crucial roles on the way to the title. The other side of the equation- the high-risk side- doomed the 2003-2004 Lakers, who dragged a decrepit Karl Malone through the postseason, and failed to find a role for Gary Payton, fracturing the team’s unity. So Miami’s approach to player acquisition has worked well enough so far, but it is probably an untenable long-term solution, since it risks a complete implosion. Persuasive as Shaq may be, Miami may be better served to engage in forms of roster construction besides the O’Neal family cookout.

Since Wade is the future of the franchise, it is instructive to consider his abilities and strengths in looking at the needs for the rest of the roster. Where does he need support? What compensation can he provide for teammates’ shortcomings? Answering these questions starts with what makes Wade unique. For one, Wade is a remarkably efficient scorer for a guard, with a True Shooting percentage of 57.7%, closer to Elton Brand and Kevin Garnett than peers like Allen Iverson and Kobe Bryant. His raw FG% of 45% is more in the range of Iverson, et al, hinting that Wade is especially good at racking up points in other ways, a hypothesis born out by his postseason free throw bonanza and his number two ranking in the league in FTA per game. Wade’s strength and athleticism allow him to penetrate the lane effectively, but he shot only 17% from 3-point range last year. Even a substantial leap in 3-point shooting would make him only an average outside threat, so finding other backcourt members who can spot up and make outside shots should be a top priority.

Relative to other top scorers in the NBA, Wade is also good at distributing the ball, especially when he drives to the basket. He has the top assist rate of any of the top 12 players in the NBA as ranked by PER- a holistic stat based on per minute contributions. His passing ability should also help outside shooters who can convert the open looks they get when Wade draws a double-team into a three pointer. Between Wade and Shaq, it is no surprise that a player like Damon Jones thrived in Miami’s system, and also no surprise that Jason Williams did not have his best year in that offensive layout. Antoine Walker has found a similar niche when accompanying Wade on offense, and has made himself even more valuable by creating his own shots without Flash.

Up front, a Wade-driven team does not require as much bulk up front as one may imagine. Although Shaq and Zo take up a lot of space on the inside, Udonis Haslem led the team in Offensive Rebound Rate, and he ranked only 44th in the NBA. Since the team takes lots of high-percentage shots, and draws lots of fouls, there will be fewer offensive rebound opportunities on the Heat than elsewhere. Similarly, the offensive rebounds that come their way will more likely come from long shots, creating long rebounds for agile, lithe bigs such as the aforementioned Haslem. Since Shaq is locked in for several more years, the best course of action would be to fortify the front court with an athletic big man who can back up at the four or the five, get some boards away from the basket, take up some space when Shaq is off the floor, draw a foul here and there, and score his points off of plays created by Wade.

With Walker, Haslem, and Shaq the only players locked in past next season, the Heat have a reasonably sound foundation, but lots of room for improvisation. In describing the ideal complements: a steady point guard who can drain threes without being the leading man (Mike James, Jameer Nelson, Earl Watson), an athletic wing who plays defense and makes open jumpers in the James Posey mold (Bobby Simmons, Quentin Ross, Raja Bell), and an interior presence whose upside and ability outweighs his current level of performance (Kwame Brown, Stromile Swift, even Juwan Howard). Therefore, the roster in a couple of years could look something like this:

PG: Earl Watson, Antonio Burks
SG: Dwayne Wade, Dorell Wright
SF: Raja Bell knockoff, Antoine Walker
PF: Udonis Haslem, Wayne Simien
C: Shaquille O’Neal, Juwan Howard

Taking Shaq not for what he has been, but for what he is likely to be, this team look suspiciously like another famous team built around a marquee swingman- the Bulls’ second three-peat. Chicago was built to play sound defense, take good shots, and get the rebounds that were there. The Heat would be wise to follow the same theory, grinding the game out until the last few minutes when Wade can take over and win the game by himself. The worst thing they could do would be to pick up someone who would challenge Wade’s status as emergent alpha-male, compromising the chemistry and the in-game strategy. That fate is unlikely, though, as Pat Riley has played the role master psychologist for long enough that it is no mistake.