Write On Sports LLC - "NBA playoffs conference finals predictions" by Jake Lloyd

NBA playoffs conference finals predictions

2007-05-20 20:53:09 | By: Jake Lloyd

Before I give my predictions, let me say something that I always say -- probably at least once a normal day.

Don't pencil it in.

People are ready for a Detroit-San Antonio championship series, a rematch of the 2005 finals, which went a thrilling seven games. And, believe me, I think it will happen as well. But both teams still have to win four games against a couple of very hungry, young teams.

So let's save the NBA Finals talk until we know who's in the finals.

With the said, here are my predictions for the two conference finals beginning this afternoon.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

No. 5 Utah vs. No. 3 San Antonio
This series will be all about how Utah's young, talented players are able to match up with the Spurs' experienced, championship-ring-wearing players.

Utah's Carlos Boozer has been arguably the best player in the playoffs, dominating in the paint for the Jazz. But how will he fare against Tim Duncan? Also, Golden State was able to slow Boozer down in Game 5 of the last series with a zone defense that kept the ball on the perimeter.

While I don't see the Spurs playing zone anytime soon, they will likely swarm Boozer, making Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko beat them. And that's what the two forwards will need to do. Okur should have a mismatch against whoever guards him. He needs to be able to knock down 3-pointers in this series, because I doubt the Spurs will guard him that closely on the perimeter.

The other key matchup will involve the point guards. Both Utah's Deron Williams and San Antonio's Tony Parker have been inconsistent these playoffs. Both have shown the ability to make the midrange jumper at times and have lacked the confidence to even attempt it at other times. Whoever can knock it down on a consistent basis and also play turnover-free basketball will give their team an edge.

Finally, Utah's Derek Fisher will be a huge key. If he can provide the leadership he did in the Jazz's final two wins over Golden State, knocking down huge 3-pointers and guiding his younger teammates, Utah will have a chance. Otherwise, it will be very difficult for the Jazz to close out tight games.

While this series might be closer than people anticipate, the Spurs' experience and killer instinct should result in a return trip to the NBA Finals.

Prediction: Spurs in 6 games

EASTERN CONFERENCE

No. 2 Cleveland vs. No. 1 Detroit
The rematch. There's no doubt the Cavaliers will use last year's conference semifinals series, in which they won three straight games only to surrender a 3-2 series lead to the Pistons, as motivation here. It won't be enough, however.

When the Pistons put their minds to it, they are the best team in the NBA. And they'll be plenty focused during this series, as they smell a rematch against the Spurs down the road.

The Cavaliers may have a superstar in LeBron James, but the Pistons have five players in their starting lineup who can score in different ways. While the Pistons will key on James defensively, making him give up the ball to his inconsistent teammates, the Cavaliers will have to focus on every one of Detroit's players.

Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace, even Chris Webber -- they're all dangerous on the offensive end.

James' supporting cast has been decent at best these playoffs. Showing up one game and not the next won't cut it against the Pistons. Larry Hughes has to shoot consistently. Drew Gooden has to be a force down low. Cleveland's outside shooters need to hit their open shots.

All of that has to happen just for the Cavaliers to be in the games. And then they will need to finish them, which is something they've struggled with all season, especially with their star not so automatic from the free throw line.

James will need to have the series of his life for Cleveland to have a chance. He'll need to take over games. And I don't think he's to that level yet. He still defers too often, even when his teammates are struggling.

Cleveland is an improved team from a year ago. But so are the Pistons, who are rested and have a better mindset. They're not taking the Cavs as a walkover. They're very serious.

Expect a very physical series, as the deeper Pistons wear down James and Gooden down low.

And expect a rematch of the 2005 NBA Finals when Detroit advances.

Prediction: Pistons in 5 games