Write On Sports LLC - "Handicapping the 2007 Baseball Season: Part 2

Handicapping the 2007 Baseball Season: Part 2 - the National League

2007-03-24 11:32:21 | By: Peter Nemerovski

On March 21, I posted my win total over/under picks for the 2007 American League baseball season. Here now are my predictions for the National League teams:

Arizona Diamondbacks: OVER 79.0

This is not a great team by any stretch, but I think this team finishes over .500. They have three solid starters in Brandon Webb, Livan Hernandez, and Doug Davis. If Randy Johnson can give Arizona what he gave the Yankees last year – over 200 innings and an even 5.00 ERA – they will win at least half of his starts. Who knows if Juan Cruz will stay healthy, but you can do a lot worse for a fifth starter. I like Arizona’s young infield: Conor Jackson (1B), Orlando Hudson (2B), and Chad Tracy (3B) all posted OPS right around .800 last year, and shortstop Stephen Drew (.316 BA in 209 AB last year) could have a breakout season. The outfield should be fine with Eric Byrnes in left, Carlos Quentin in right, and the promising rookie Chris Young in center. If this team goes under, it will be because the bullpen blew too many leads. A bad bullpen can easily turn an 85-win team into a 75-win team, and this is a bad bullpen: Jorge Julio and Brandon Lyon setting up Jose Valverde. Finally, I should probably note here that I have an inexplicable affection for the Arizona Diamondbacks. In 2004 I picked them to win the NL West, and they went on to lose 111 games. Proceed with caution.

Atlanta Braves: UNDER 82.5

Last year, Atlanta finished a disappointing 79-81, 18 games behind the first-place Mets. So this offseason, they loaded up on big-name free agents in an effort to reclaim their rightful position at the top of the National League East, right? Wrong. Instead, Atlanta brought in Mike Gonzalez, Tanyon Sturtze, Chris Woodward, and Rafael Soriano. And you know what? I like what they did. Instead of freaking out because of one bad season, Atlanta basically decided to stand pat and let their young talent, of which they have plenty, develop. Soriano and Gonzalez (24 saves in limited action in 2006) should improve a bullpen that cost the Braves way too many games last year. The offense will score plenty of runs, even without the departed Adam LaRoche, and the Braves should be OK in the field. So why am I going under here? The problem with this team is the starting rotation. After John Smoltz, they have Tim Hudson, who appears to be washed up at age 31; Mike Hampton, who will almost certainly miss at least part of the season with injuries; promising lefty Chuck James; and the dreadful Kyle Davies. I don’t see enough firepower there to keep this team above .500. The Braves will hit, but they hit last year (second in the NL in runs scored). Atlanta will come in pretty close to the number this year, but I think this team is still a year or two away from contending again.

Chicago Cubs: UNDER 84.0

It’s always a good idea to go under with the team that made the biggest splash in the offseason free agent/trade market. The expectations are usually high for such teams, but rarely does a team achieve such dramatic improvement simply by bringing in some new faces. This offseason, the Cubs signed the best everyday player available (Alfonso Soriano), a solid starting pitcher (Ted Lilly, who went 15-13 with a 4.31 ERA for Toronto in 2006), and a versatile infielder coming off a career year (Mark DeRosa, who posted a .357 on-base percentage, 13 HR, and 74 RBIs for Atlanta). Soriano and DeRosa join a lineup that already included some good hitters: first baseman Derrek Lee (.842 OPS in limited action in 2006), catcher Michael Barrett (.885 OPS in 375 AB), third baseman Aramis Ramirez (.291 BA, 38 HR, 119 RBIs), and rightfielder Jacque Jones (.285/27/81). The Cubs will score more runs than they did last year (716, second-to-last in the NL), and a lot more if Lee can stay healthy. The bullpen looks OK: Bob Howry and Scott Eyre are solid setup men, and Kerry Wood stands a better chance of staying healthy pitching in relief. Closer Ryan Dempster is below average, but should be better than last year and won’t hurt them too much. Despite the addition of Lilly, the Cubs’ starting pitching is very shaky. After ace Carlos Zambrano (16-7, 3.41 ERA in 2006), there is nothing but question marks. Can Ted Lilly duplicate the career year he had in 2006? (Answer: probably not.) Is Rich Hill for real? (I’m not sold.) Will Mark Prior stay healthy the entire year? (Uh, no.) Are the Cubs actually going to let the dreaded Jason Marquis, arguably the worst starting pitcher in the National League last year (first in the NL in losses, earned runs, and HR allowed), start every fifth game? (I guess so.) The Cubs have finished over .500 just eight times in the last 34 seasons, so picking them to win fewer than 84 games is not exactly going out on a limb. The Cubs will win more than the 66 games they won in their disastrous 2006 season, but an 18-win improvement is asking too much.

Cincinnati Reds: UNDER 76.5

Cincinnati actually enjoyed a decent season in 2006. They won 80 games for the first time since 2000 and finished just 3.5 games behind division and eventual World Series champion St. Louis. Starting pitchers Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo had career years and are back at the top of the rotation for 2007. Joining them in the rotation this year are Eric Milton and Kyle Lohse. The fifth starter spot will likely be a revolving door. Lohse actually pitched OK last year (4.57 ERA after being traded from Minnesota), but Milton and whoever the fifth starter is figure to get hit hard. The bullpen is also shaky. Veteran David Weathers will be the primary closer, but he is 37 years old and has just 41 career saves. Middle relievers Bill Bray and Gary Majewski came over from the Nationals in July in a much-maligned trade; neither is a particularly accomplished setup man. The offense struggled last year (just 4.62 runs per game despite playing in a hitter-friendly home ballpark), and GM Wayne Krivsky failed to get any help this offseason (unless you count Jeff Conine). This team overachieved last year and has only gotten worse, beginning with the trade of Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for Bray and Majewski and continuing through an underwhelming offseason. The Reds could take a big step back in 2007.

Colorado Rockies: UNDER 75.5

The Rockies have a solid nucleus of young talent: starting pitchers Jeff Francis, 26, and Aaron Cook, 28, third baseman Garrett Atkins, 27, and outfielders Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe, both 27. Unfortunately, they also have a lot of marginal major leaguers filling key roles. The starting rotation will likely include Jason Hirsh (6.04 ERA in nine starts for Houston in 2006), Byung-Hyun Kim (5.57 ERA last year), and Josh Fogg (5.49). Kaz Matsui (.697 career OPS) is slated to play second base, and Willy Taveras (1 HR, 30 RBI in 529 AB in 2006) will start in center. The face of the franchise, first baseman Todd Helton, is in obvious decline, having posted career lows of .302 BA and 15 HR last year. The Rockies probably overachieved last year in winning 76 games. Jason Jennings gave them 212 IP and a 3.78 ERA but was promptly shipped to Houston for Tavarez, Hirsh, and pitcher Taylor Buchholz. That trade suggests a long-term approach by the front office. In the short term, Rockies fans can expect a seventh straight losing season. I’d be surprised if they win 70.

Florida Marlins: OVER 77.5

The Marlins are a team that seems to go over the number just about every year. Last year they recovered from an 11-31 start to finish 78-84 despite one of the lowest payrolls in baseball. The Marlins have the best young pitching staff in the National League, including four starters who won at least 10 games as rookies in 2006: Scott Olsen (12-10), Josh Johnson (12-7), Anibal Sanchez (10-3), and Ricky Nolasco (11-11). Together with ace Dontrelle Willis (223.1 IP, 3.87 ERA in 2006), they form one of the better starting rotations in baseball. The bullpen is a bit of a question mark but should be OK. Last year’s closer, Joe Borowski, signed with Cleveland, but Taylor Tankersley (2.85 ERA, .228 BAA in 49 appearances last year) should do an adequate job, and Kevin Gregg, acquired in a trade with the Angels, is a solid middle reliever. I expect Florida’s young hitters to improve this year and provide the excellent pitching staff with enough run support to win around 80 games. Third baseman Miguel Cabrera is simply one of the best hitters in the game at age 23. First baseman Mike Jacobs (20 HR, 77 RBI in 2006), second baseman Dan Uggla (.282 BA, 27 HR, 90 RBI), and outfielders Hanley Ramirez (.833 OPS in 2006) and Josh Wilingham (.277 BA, 26 HR, 74 RBI) figure to build on their promising 2006 campaigns. The Marlins have an unproven rookie manager in Fredi Gonzalez, but that didn’t seem to bother them last year. This team will go over the number, and if things break right, they could contend for a playoff spot.

Houston Astros: OVER 77.5

This is one of the better bets on the board, as the Astros tend to go over the number most years and have not finished below .500 since 2000. Houston was active in the offseason free agent market, signing outfielder Carlos Lee, pitcher Woody Williams, and second baseman Mark Loretta. (They also traded for pitcher Jason Jennings.) Pitcher Andy Pettitte signed with the Yankees, and Roger Clemens may or may not pitch for the Astros again this year. Even without Pettitte and Clemens, the rotation will not drop off much from last year. Jennings is an excellent addition, and Williams probably has one or two good years left. Roy Oswalt (15-8, 220.2 IP, 2.98 ERA in 2006) is one of the better #1 starters in the league, but the back of the rotation is shaky at best: Wandy Rodriguez (5.64 ERA last year) and rookie Matt Albers. Closer Brad Lidge (5.28 ERA) struggled last year. If he cannot return to form, things could fall apart for Houston. Setup men Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls are adequate. With the addition of slugger Lee (.300 BA, 37 HR, 116 RBI in 2006), the middle of the lineup is formidable. First baseman Lance Berkman is coming off a monster year (.315/45/136), and Houston is looking forward to a full season of rightfielder Luke Scott (1.047 OPS in 214 at bats last year). The Astros would be wise to decrease the roles of veterans Brad Ausmus and Craig Biggio, neither of whom hit over .250 last year, and both of whom are coming to ends of their respective careers. There are some question marks surrounding this team: the back of the starting rotation, Lidge, and some easy outs in the lineup. But as in past years, the Astros will manage to remain in playoff contention all season and should end up with at least 80 wins.

Los Angeles Dodgers: OVER 88.0

Loaded with young talent, the Dodgers are poised to build on a solid 2006 campaign that saw them win 17 more games than they did in 2005. Rightfielder J.D. Drew signed with Boston over the winter, and Kenny Lofton is now a Ranger. The Dodgers will try the aging Luis Gonzalez in left field, but if his decline continues, either Matt Kemp or Jason Repko could step in. Juan Pierre, signed as a free agent, will play center, and the promising Andre Ethier (.308 BA, 11 HR, 55 RBI in 396 AB last year) will play right. The infield is anchored by veterans Nomar Garciaparra and Jeff Kent, both of whom stayed relatively healthy and enjoyed productive seasons last year. Rafael Furcal will again play short, and Wilson Betemit, who hit 18 HR in just 373 AB last year, will play third. Catcher Russell Martin’s .792 OPS in 2006 was third-best among NL backstops. The pitching staff was good last year and should be even better in 2007 with the arrival of Jason Schmidt (11-9, 3.59 ERA, .238 BAA for San Francisco in 2006). Schmidt joins a rotation that includes Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Randy Wolf, and Chad Billingsley. Schmidt, Lowe, and Penny would all be #1 starters for most teams, and Billingsley was excellent (7-4, 3.80 ERA) in 16 starts last year. Closer Takashi Saito came from nowhere to record 24 saves while holding opposing hitters to a .177 BA last year, and middle reliever Jonathan Broxton (2.59 ERA, 97 K in 76.1 IP) is well above average. The Dodgers look like the class of the NL West and should win at least 90 games.

Milwaukee Brewers: OVER 81.0

The Brewers have not had a winning season since 1992, but this should be the year. Ace Ben Sheets appears to be healthy again, at least for the moment, and starters Chris Capuano (4.03 ERA, 221.1 IP), Jeff Suppan (12-7, 4.12 ERA for St. Louis), and Dave Bush (12-11, 4.41 ERA, .252 BAA) all pitched reasonably well last year. Claudio Vargas (12-10, 4.83 ERA with Washington) is an adequate fifth starter. Francisco Cordero is a sold closer, but the rest of the bullpen – Derrick Turnbow, Jose Capellan, Matt Wise, Brian Shouse – is shaky. The Brewers will lean heavily on some very young position players. First baseman Prince Fielder is just 22, second baseman Richie Weeks and shortstop J.J. Hardy are both 24, and outfielders Corey Hart and Bill Hall are 25 and 27, respectively. This team has a lot of upside if everyone stays healthy and the young players continue to develop. Fielder (.271 BA, 28 HR, 81 RBI in 2006) and Hall (.899 OPS) are legitimate hitters, but others will have to step up if the Brewers are to improve offensively. Their .258 BA, 4.51 runs/game, and .747 OPS in 2006 all ranked near the bottom of the league. Veterans Corey Koskie (3B), Geoff Jenkins RF), and Kevin Mench (OF) are all average at best. If the Brewers go under again, it will be because they couldn’t score enough runs or the bullpen blew too many games (or both). I predict the offense will be better, and the starting pitching will carry them to 82 or 83 wins.

New York Mets: OVER 89.0

To determine why the Mets, who went 97-65 last year, are only expected to win 89 games in 2007, one need look no further than their starting pitching. Pedro Martinez will likely miss most of the season after undergoing rotator cuff surgery in October. Ace Tom Glavine (15-7, 3.82 ERA in 32 starts last year) will be 41 on Opening Day and probably cannot give them 198 IP again. Nobody knows exactly how old Orlando Hernandez (11-11, 4.66 ERA) really is, but he’s clearly past his prime. John Maine (6-5, 3.60) pitched well at the end of last season, but it remains to be seen how well he will hold up over the course of a full season. The Mets will be forced to go with some combination of Odalis Perez, Chan Ho Park, and Aaron Sele to complete their starting rotation. The rest of this team is more or less the same as last year. Chad Bradford and Roberto Hernandez are gone from the bullpen, but there is plenty of firepower left, including closer Billy Wagner (2.24 ERA, 40 saves in 2006) and setup man Aaron Heilman (3.62 ERA, .231 BAA). The offense slugged 200 homers last year and scored 5.15 runs/game, and all the major players are back: first baseman Carlos Delgado (.265 BA, 38 HR, 114 RBI last year), third baseman David Wright (.311/26/116), shortstop Jose Reyes (.300/19/81) and centerfielder Carlos Beltran (.275/41/116). This is an American League lineup, and there are no easy outs. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the starting rotation, I think the Mets will be fine this year. They have a ton of money and will do whatever is necessary to remain competitive.

Philadelphia Phillies: UNDER 89.0

The Phillies have had a remarkably consistent run of mediocrity lately, winning between 85 and 88 games in each of the past four seasons. Is this the year they finally crack the 90-win plateau, and perhaps even make the playoffs? There are certainly reasons to be optimistic. Lefthanded phenom Cole Hamels went 6-3 with a 2.60 ERA over his last 11 starts in 2006. Brett Myers (12-7, 3.91 ERA in 31 starts last year) is coming off an excellent season and at age 26 is still getting better. Freddy Garcia (17-9, 4.53 ERA), acquired in a trade with Chicago, is a frontline starter in the prime of his career. First baseman Ryan Howard (313 BA, 58 HR, 149 RBI), second baseman Chase Utley (.309/32/102), and shortstop Jimmy Rollins (.277/25/83) all had career years last year as the Phillies hit 216 home runs and averaged 5.34 runs per game. With Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton, and John Lieber all on staff, the Phillies have a surplus of starting pitchers and could trade a starter for some much-needed bullpen help. The Phillies certainly look good on paper, but the pitching could go south. Myers and Hamels are probably still a year or two away from being able to anchor a staff. Garcia experienced some aches and pains in spring training and may start the season on the disabled list. Moyer is 44 years old and in decline. Eaton (7-4, 5.12 ERA in 13 starts for Texas last year) is OK when healthy, but certainly not worth the three year, $24 million contract the Phillies gave him. Tom Gordon, 39, is a bit old to be closing games. The middle relievers are shaky, and the Phillies simply can’t afford to have the bullpen blowing games. The Phillies will get close to 89 wins but come up just short.

Pittsburgh Pirates: UNDER 72.0

It was a fairly quiet offseason in Pittsburgh, which is never a good thing when you’re coming off back-to-back 67-win seasons. The Pirates appear content to build from within and let their young talent continue to develop. The offense has two bright young stars in batting champ Freddy Sanchez (.344 BA, 6 HR, 85 RBI in 2006), who will move from third base to second this year, and leftfielder Jason Bay (.286/35/109). The rest of the lineup is a work in progress. Much is expected of third baseman Jose Castillo (.253/15/65), and catcher Ronny Paulino (.310 BA last year) should continue to develop into one of the league’s best hitting catchers. First baseman Adam LaRoche (.285/32/90), acquired in a trade with Atlanta in January, will immediately improve an offense that got almost no production from its first basemen last year. Pirates fans are excited about the team’s young pitchers. Ian Snell overcame a poor start to win 14 games last year. Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, and Tom Gorzelanny are all 25 or younger, and each has the potential to develop into a frontline starter. With last year’s closer, Mike Gonzalez, traded away to Atlanta for LaRoche, the bullpen is a bit of a question mark. The Pirates think they can get by with Damaso Marte, Salomon Torres, John Grabow, and Matt Capps, but time will tell. The Pirates will score more runs than they did last year, but shaky pitching will keep them from winning 70 games.

San Diego Padres: OVER 83.5

The Padres have managed to win back-to-back National League West titles without anyone ever thinking they are any good. They went 82-80 in 2005, and improved to 88-74 in ’06. Both years they were bounced in the first round of the playoffs. This year’s team looks every bit as mediocre and uninspiring as the last three (the Padres also went a pedestrian 87-75 in 2004). Several of their regulars, most notably outfielders Mike Cameron and Brian Giles, are well past their primes. Younger players such as catcher Josh Bard (.333 BA, 9 HR, 40 RBI in 2006), shortstop Khalil Greene (.245/15/55), and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (.304/24/82) must build on their promising 2006 seasons. Gonzalez is really their only above-average everyday player. The pitching is generally solid. Jake Peavy struggled last year (career-high 4.09 ERA) but should bounce back. Chris Young (11-5, 3.46 ERA) is a promising hurrler just entering his prime. I like the Greg Maddux (15-14, 4.20) signing. People forget he’s only 40 years old. When you look at what guys like Clemens, Moyer, and Kenny Rogers have done in their 40s, it’s not unrealistic to think Maddux has two or three more productive seasons in him. Clay Hensley pitched well last year (11-12, 3.71 ERA). Veteran lefty David Wells will begin the season in the rotation but should be kept on a short leash. With Scott Linebrink (73 games, 70 holds, .243 BAA in 2006) and Trevor Hoffman (46 saves, .205 BAA) in the bullpen, the Padres will once again be almost impossible to come back on. If this number were set just a little bit higher – say, 85 or 86 – I would be taking the under here because I think their offense is really going to struggle. However, 84 wins is not asking too much of a team that won 88 last year and whose pitching staff is among the best in the league.

San Francisco Giants: UNDER 80.0

The Giants made a big splash this offseason by luring free agent pitcher Barry Zito, formerly of Oakland, to the other side of the bay. This was an excellent move, but unfortunately for the Giants, one player – even a Cy Young-caliber starting pitcher – does not make much difference when the rest of the team is such a mess. The starting lineup, with Barry Bonds, Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, and Omar Vizquel, can only be described as old. There really isn’t one exciting young position player on this team. Defense will be a concern all season, especially since Bonds is really a DH at this point in his career. The starting pitching will of course be improved. Zito joins a rotation that features promising righty Matt Cain (13-12, 4.15 ERA in 2006), righty Matt Morris (10-15, 4.98), and lefty Noah Lowry (7-10, 4.74). Candidates for the fifth spot include Russ Ortiz and Jonathan Sanchez. The Giants should be OK at the top of the rotation with Zito and Cain, but after that they will struggle unless Morris can turn back the clock to the early 2000s (which, come to think of it, would be a great idea for this entire team). The bullpen is also questionable, with closer Armando Benitez and setup man Steve Kline both a bit past their respective primes (noticing a theme here?). This team will not improve until Bonds retires and they can focus on developing young talent, something they have not done in years. Until then, the Giants will battle with Colorado to stay out of the NL West cellar.

St Louis Cardinals: UNDER 85.5

After winning 105 games in 2004 and another 100 in 2005, the Cardinals took a major step backwards in 2006, going just 83-78. Of course, they also won the World Series in 2006. This year the Cardinals are back with more or less the same lineup as last year, which means their hitting and fielding will be fine. Cardinal fans are looking forward to a full season of leftfielder Chris Duncan, who hit .293 with 22 homers and 43 RBIs in 280 at bats last year. The middle of the order is formidable, with Albert Pujols (.331 BA, 49 HR, 137 RBI in 2006), Scott Rolen (.296/22/95), and Jim Edmonds (.257/19/70), although Edmonds is not the hitter he once was. New second baseman Adam Kennedy (.273/4/55) probably should not be an everyday player at this point in his career, and Yadier Molina, while an excellent defensive catcher, must improve on last year’s .216 batting average. While the starting lineup is stable, the pitching staff is anything but. Jeff Weaver and the underappreciated Jeff Suppan have moved on, and St. Louis really did not go out and get anybody to replace them. Chris Carpenter (15-8, 3.09 ERA, 221.2 IP last year) is a legitimate ace, but he’s the only sure thing in this rotation. Kip Wells will probably be the number two starter, and he struggled (6.50 ERA) in limited action with Pittsburgh and Texas last year. Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper belong in the bullpen but will get a chance to start this year. Young Anthony Reyes (5-8, 5.06 ERA) showed some promise last year but is still just a fifth starter at this point. The Cardinals will really miss Suppan and Mark Mulder, who is still on the team but will miss at least half the season following rotator cuff surgery. It’s unusual for a defending World Champion to be expected to win only 86 games, but this team has some major question marks. Unless GM Walt Jocketty can fill in the holes as the season goes on, this team will struggle to finish .500.

Washington Nationals: UNDER 66.0

Trivia time: who are John Patterson, Jerome Williams, Tim Redding, Mike O’Connor, and Shawn Hill? If you answered, “the projected starting rotation for the 2007 Washington Nationals,” you are correct. The Nationals’ starters posted a dreadful 5.37 ERA in 2006, and there is no reason to think things will be any better in 2007. Their starters are all marginal major leaguers, and only O’Connor started more than eight games in 2006. The offense is not so bad. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman (.287BA, 20 HR, 110 RBI in 2006) is a budding superstar. Second baseman Felipe Lopez (.274/11/52), first baseman Nick Johnson (.290/23/77), and rightfielder Austin Kearns (.264/24/86) are good everyday players. It will be hard for the Nats to make up for the loss of Alfonso Soriano, but I think they will score enough runs. The bullpen, with Chad Cordero (39 saves, .215 BAA last year) at the back end, is adequate. This is clearly a rebuilding year for the Nationals, who will move into a new ballpark in 2008. They are committed to building around young players like Zimmerman, Kearns, and Cordero, but they will have to find some starting pitching somewhere if they are ever going to be competitive again. In the meantime, it will be another looooooooooong summer in the nation’s capital.