Write On Sports LLC - "Handicapping the 2007 Baseball Season:<br>Part One

Handicapping the 2007 Baseball Season:
Part One - the American League

2007-03-21 20:22:00 | By: Peter Nemerovski

While most sports fans are focused on college basketball, baseball fans are gearing up for the start of a new season. The online sportsbooks and a few Vegas casinos have posted their futures bets, including over/unders for total wins. Below are my predictions for which American League teams will go over the number and who will go under. I’ll be back with a breakdown of the National League in a few days.

Baltimore Orioles: UNDER 72.5*

There are a few teams that can be counted on to go under pretty much every year. Baltimore is one of them, and this year will be no exception. The O’s play in a tough division that should be even better this year, and it is difficult to imagine any scenario in which they finish above fourth place. The starting pitching was awful last year, and should be marginally improved this year with Steve Trachsel (15 wins for the Mets last year) and Jaret Wright (11-7, 4.49 ERA for the Yankees) joining the rotation. Kris Benson will probably miss the entire season after having shoulder surgery; the way he pitched last year, I’m not sure that is such a bad thing. The bullpen should be quite good, with the additions of Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker, and the underappreciated Chris Ray closing out games, but they will not have many leads to protect. The offense is average at best. Melvin Mora’s and Miguel Tejada’s best years are behind them, and at this point in their careers, guys like Brian Roberts, Kevin Millar, Jay Payton, Corey Patterson, and Jay Gibbons are what they are: limited offensive contributors. The only everyday player with significant upside is rightfielder Nick Markakis. He could and probably will have a breakout season, but it won’t make much difference. At 72.5, the bar is not set very high, but the Orioles will find a way to underachieve once again.

Boston Red Sox: OVER 91.0

This team will win 100 games. There are some questions regarding the middle of the starting rotation: Will Josh Beckett struggle again? Will Daisuke Matsuzaka be as dominant here as he was in Japan? Will Jonathan Papelbon make a smooth transition from reliever to starter? Beckett actually did not pitch that badly last year. His ERA was a bit high (5.01), but he pitched over 200 innings, won 16 games, and held hitters to a .245 BA. I suspect Matsuzaka will struggle some but still win at least 15 games. Papelbon won’t have a 0.92 ERA again, but he will do just fine as a starter. With a legitimate ace (Curt Schilling) at the front of the rotation and a reliable innings-eater (Tim Wakefield) at the back, this may be the best starting rotation in baseball. The offense will once again score a ton of runs. The J.D. Drew acquisition was controversial, which doesn’t make any sense to me, since Drew is a good fielder, hits for power, has a career OBP of .393, and seems to have put his injury problems behind him. He won’t be the most popular guy in the clubhouse, but he will produce. The only real weakness the Red Sox have is their bullpen. With Papelbon now starting, the closer duties will likely fall to veteran Mike Timlin, with Joel Piniero and Brendan Donnelly setting up. The bullpen will blow some games, but that seems to be built into the over/under, and it’s always easy to trade for a decent reliever during the season. I predict Boston will win the AL East.

Chicago White Sox: OVER 87.5

It must be nice to have a bad season and still win 90 games. The White Sox did exactly that in 2006, finishing six games behind division champ Minnesota. Chicago’s starting pitching, which helped them win a World Championship in 2005, struggled all season in 2006. Would-be ace Mark Buehrle posted a 6.44 ERA in the second half, and Javier Vazquez finished a disappointing 11-12 with a 4.84 ERA. Freddy Garcia won 17 games but was traded to Philadelphia for two young pitchers, Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez. Floyd, the projected fifth starter, was awful in Philadelphia last year (7.29 ERA, .315 ERA in 11 starts). Buehrle and Vazquez figure to bounce back this year, and Jose Contreras and Jon Garland are reliable starters. They lost Neal Cotts, Brandon McCarthy, and David Riske from the bullpen, but they still have an excellent closer in Bobby Jenks (41 saves last year) and some good setup guys (Mike MacDougal and Matt Thornton). Add it all up and this is an above-average pitching staff. Offensively this team will be just fine. They averaged 5.36 runs per game and hit 236 home runs in 2006, and this year’s lineup should be more or less identical to last year’s. The White Sox should win 91-94 games this year and contend for a playoff spot.

Cleveland Indians: OVER 85.0

After winning a surprising 93 games in 2005, Cleveland suffered through a disappointing 78-84 season in 2006. Their biggest problem was a dreadful bullpen that blew 23 saves. GM Mark Shapiro completely overhauled the pen this offseason, bringing in Joe Borowski (36 saves for Florida last year), Keith Foulke (4.35 ERA in another injury-plagued season for Boston), the ageless Roberto Hernandez (3.11 ERA in 68 appearances for the Mets), and Aaron Fultz (62 K in 66 IP for the Phillies). Some might call this rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Had Cleveland simply kept Bob Wickman instead of trading him to Atlanta last year, they would have a closer about as good as Borowski. Hernandez is 42 years old, and even if Foulke manages to stay healthy, it’s not clear he has anything left in the tank. But Shapiro did the best he could, and the Tribe’s bullpen should be significantly better than last year’s version, if only because last year’s was so bad. The starting pitching is excellent, with a projected rotation of C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd, and Jeremy Sowers. The offense is young but enormously talented. Victor Martinez, Ryan Garko, Grady Sizemore, Casey Blake, and Travis Hafner are all plus hitters, and new second baseman Josh Barfield could hit .300. The defense is shaky, but they will score enough runs to make up for it. I’m projecting a big bounce-back season for this team – 90-plus wins – and clearly I’m not the only one, as evidenced by the over/under of 85.

Detroit Tigers: UNDER 87.5

87.5 is a surprisingly low total considering the Tigers return all the key players from last year’s 95-win team and added Gary Sheffield over the winter. However, I’m still going under because there are simply too many things that could go wrong here. Last year’s ace, Kenny Rogers, is 42 years old and will start a serious decline one of these years. Fifth starter Mike Maroth was awful last year when he came back from elbow surgery and hasn’t looked right this spring. Nearly half of the projected everyday players – Placido Polanco, Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, and Gary Sheffield – are injury-prone. Manager Jim Leyland is good at motivating players and maintaining order in the clubhouse, but he fundamentally misunderstands how baseball games are won, as evidenced by his inexplicable obsession with Neifi Perez (.674 career OPS) – whom Leyland actually batted leadoff in two games in 2006 – and his decision to limit the team’s best hitter, Marcus Thames (.882 OPS), to just 348 at bats. The Tigers have plenty of talent: starters Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, and Nate Robertson all enjoyed excellent seasons in 2006 and should pitch well again. If everyone stays healthy, the starting lineup will be formidable. The bullpen, with closer Todd Jones (37 saves in 2006) and setup men Joel Zumaya (97 K in 83.1 IP) and Fernando Rodney (3.52 ERA, .196 BAA), is among the best in baseball. The Tigers play in a murderous division with three other legitimate playoff contenders (Chicago, Cleveland, and Minnesota). I see Detroit taking a big step back this year and finishing within a few games of .500.

Kansas City Royals: UNDER 67.0

After another 100-loss season in 2006, the Royals were uncharacteristically active in the offseason free agent market, signing starting pitcher Gil Meche and relievers Octavio Dotel and David Riske. Meche (55-44, 4.65 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over his six-year career) does not strike me as a $55 million pitcher, but that’s what the Royals will pay him over the next five years. Meche is still young enough (28) that he may eventually develop into a frontline starter. The Royals clearly hope that will happen over the next 2-3 years, just as their promising young everyday players – centerfielder David DeJesus, third baseman/outfielder Mark Teahan, and infielder Alex Gordon – are entering their primes. At this point, however, Meche is nothing more than a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. The Royals’ other starters are even worse. Much worse: Odalis Perez (6.20 ERA, .320 BAA in 2006), Luke Hudson (5.12, .276), Jorge de la Rosa (6.49, .266), and Zach Greinke (4.98 career ERA). While the pitchers get clobbered again, the offense will be hard-pressed to score enough runs to keep the Royals in games. Teahan (.357 OBP, 18 HR, 69 RBI in 393 AB), DeJesus (.364 OBP), and leftfielder Emil Brown (.287 BA, 15 HR, 81 RBI) all hit well last year, but there are way too many easy outs elsewhere in Kansas City’s lineup. Much is expected of five-tool prospect Gordon, who should be ready for a full season in the big leagues this year. It will be another long season for the Royals, who will struggle to avoid losing 100 games for a fourth straight season. They seem to be headed in the right direction with new GM Dayton Moore, but are still several years away from contending in the brutal AL Central.

Los Angeles Angels: OVER 89.0

The Angels had a disappointing season in 2006, finishing four games behind division champ Oakland and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2003. However, they still won 89 games and should win at least a few more in 2007. Over the winter, the Angels added coveted free agent Gary Mattherws, Jr. to an already strong core of everyday players. Matthews, who will play centerfield, joins leftfielder Garret Anderson (.280, 17 HR, 85 RBI in 2006) and rightfielder Vladimir Guerrero (.330/33/116) in what should be one of the better outfields in the American League. The Angels would be wise to let the underrated Juan Rivera (.310/23/85) play outfield at least part of the time and make the aging Anderson a designated hitter. That would marginally improve a defense that led the league with 124 errors last year, and might increase Anderson’s offensive production. The infield is somewhat unsettled, but only because the Angels have an abundance of young talent. Second baseman Howie Kendrick, just 23 years old, struggled at times last year but could break out in 2007. Casey Kotchman and Dallas McPherson are excellent corner-infield prospects and should see significant playing time. Shortstop Orlando Cabrera, third baseman Chone Figgins, and new first baseman Shea Hillenbrand are likely to start on opening day. The pitching staff is among the best in baseball, with all five starters – John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Ervin Santana, Jared Weaver, and Bartolo Colon – possessing top-of-the-rotation stuff. The bullpen is equally strong, with one of the best setup men (Scot Sheilds) and one of the best closers (Francisco Rodriguez) around. This team is clearly the class of the AL West and could win as many as 97 or 98 games if things break right.

Minnesota Twins: OVER 84.5

Minnesota started slowly in 2006, winning just 25 of their first 58 games, but they righted the ship and went 71-33 down the stretch to finish 96-66 and win the American League Central. The starting pitching, one of the Twins’ strengths in 2006, will have a different look in 2007. Brad Radke has retired, and Francisco Liriano will miss the entire season after having elbow surgery. Johan Santana is the best starting pitcher in the game, but the rest of the rotation is shaky. Carlos Silva (11-15, 5.94 ERA, .324 BAA) and Scott Baker (5-8, 6.37 ERA, .324 BAA in 16 starts) were awful in 2006. Boof Bonser (7-6, 4.22 ERA in 18 starts) and Matt Garza (3-6, 5.76 ERA in nine starts and one relief appearance) should both pitch better in 2007. Garza is just 23, and if he still isn’t ready to pitch to pitch in the big leagues, the Twins could be in trouble. The Twins signed Ramon Ortiz (11-16, 5.57 ERA, .297 ERA), who could take Baker’s or Garza’s place in the rotation, but Ortiz is nothing more than a below-average fifth starter. 24 year-old lefty Glen Perkins may also get a chance to start. The bullpen, with Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain setting up closer Joe Nathan, is among the best in baseball. Minnesota relievers posted an excellent 2.91 ERA in 2006 (the AL average was 4.25). The lineup should be more or less identical to last year’s, which is a good thing since the twins hit .287 last year and are loaded with young talent. Catcher Joe Mauer (.347 BA, 13 HR, 84 RBI in 2006) and first baseman Justin Morneau (.321/34/130), the reigning American League Most Valuable Player, are two of the brightest young stars in baseball. Outfielders Torii Hunter (.826 OPS last year) and Michael Cuddyer (.867) are professional hitters. The Twins hit just 143 home runs in 2006 but should hit a few more in 2007. With only one established major league starting pitcher, it will be difficult for this team to win 96 games again, but they should win at least 85. If Bonser and Garza pitch well, Minnesota could repeat as division champs.

New York Yankees: OVER 96.5

The Yankees won 97 games last year but were bounced in the first round of the playoffs by eventual American League Champion Detroit. They had trouble scoring runs against the Tigers’ excellent pitching, but scoring runs will not be a problem this year, at least in the regular season. Gary Sheffield was traded to the aforementioned Tigers, but a full season of Bobby Abreu will more than make up for Sheffield’s absence from the lineup. The worst hitter in New York’s lineup is probably their new first baseman, Doug Mientkiewicz, and even he posted a .359 OBP for Kansas City in 2006. The Yankees slugged 210 home runs last year, and their .824 OPS was tops in the American League. While the starting lineup is deep, the pitching rotation is not. The Yankees are solid at the top of the rotation. Chien-Ming Wang was terrific last year (19-6, 3.63 ERA, 218 IP), and Mike Mussina (15-7, 3.51) would be the #1 starter for most teams. After Wang and Mussina, there are only questions. How much does Andy Pettitte (14-13, 4.20 ERA for Houston in 2006) have left in the tank? How many innings can they really expect from injury-prone righty Carl Pavano, who has not pitched a full season since 2004? Is Japanese import Kei Igawa a major league starting pitcher? Will Roger Clemens decide to finish his career as a Yankee? Pettitte is still only 34 and should benefit from a bigger ballpark and more run support. I don’t expect much production from the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, but that was the case last year and the Yankees still won 97 games. With Kyle Farnsworth (.243 BAA in 72 G last year), Scott Proctor (3.52 ERA, .232 BAA), and closer Mariano Rivera (1.80 ERA, 34 saves) in the bullpen, the Yankees will very difficult to come back on. This looks like a 97- or 98-win team to me, so I will take the over here, but it’s far from a sure thing.

Oakland Athletics: OVER 85.5

The Athletics usually look a lot better on the field than they do on paper, and they had better hope that’s the case again this year. Longtime ace Barry Zito (16-10, 3.83 ERA, 221 IP) is now a San Francisco Giant, and Frank Thomas, who smacked 39 home runs and drove in 114 last year, signed with Toronto. Mike Piazza will try to fill Thomas’ shoes as Oakland’s designated hitter. Piazza hit reasonably well in San Diego last year (.283 BA, 22 HR, 68 RBI), but cannot be expected to match Thomas’ monster numbers from 2006. Oakland is hoping righty Rich Harden, who was limited to just nine starts last year, can stay healthy and thus soften the blow of Zito’s departure. There is no legitimate staff ace, but Harden, Dan Haren (14-13, 4.12 ERA in 2006), and Joe Blanton (16-12, 4.82) all have good stuff. Esteban Loaiza (11-9, 4.89) is a good back-of-the-rotation starter. Veteran lefty Joe Kennedy (2.31 ERA, .254 BAA in 35 relief innings last year) will likely be the fifth starter. While the starting pitching is just average, the bullpen is strong, with Kiko Calero (3.41 ERA, .231 BAA) and Justin Duchscherer (2.91, .244) setting up Huston Street (37 saves, .238 BAA), one of the game’s best young closers. Offensively, the Athletics will struggle. They hit just .260 last year but still managed to score 4.76 runs/game, just below the AL average of 4.97. Much of their run production last year was attributable to Thomas. First baseman Dan Johnson (.234 BA in 2006), second baseman Mark Elllis (.249), third baseman Eric Chavez (.241), shortstop Bobby Crosby (.229) will have to hit better this year. First baseman/outfielder Nick Swisher hit just .254, but his .372 OBP and 35 HR more than made up for it. This team doesn’t have much firepower, but they will once again find a way to win ballgames. 86 wins is not asking much from a team that won 103, 96, 91, 88, and 93 over the last five seasons.

Seattle Mariners: UNDER 77.5

After winning just 132 total games in 2004 and 2005, the Mariners took a step forward last year, finishing 78-84. This year I expect them to win 74-76 games and thus fall just short of the number. The starting rotation features a bunch of middle-of-the-rotation guys and no legitimate #1 (or even #2). Felix Hernandez, just 20 years old, is a work in progress. Jarrod Washburn struggled last year (8-14, 4.67 ERA) and must pitch better for the Mariners to contend. New arrivals Miguel Batista (11-8, 4.58 ERA with Arizona in 2006) and Horacio Ramirez (5-5, 4.48 ERA in 14 starts for Atlanta) are nothing special. Free agent signee Jeff Weaver will likely begin the season in the starting rotation, but one never knows which Jeff Weaver will show up: the one who won 27 games for the Dodgers in 2004 and 2005 and pitched well for the Cardinals last postseason, or the one who posted a 5.76 ERA in 31 starts for the Angels and Cardinals during the 2006 regular season. The bullpen, anchored by closer J.J. Putz (2.30 ERA, 36 saves in 2006), should once again be a strength. The offense is just average. It appears third baseman Adrian Beltre, who hit just .268 last year, will never live up to his enormous contract, and first baseman Richie Sexson (.264 BA, 34 HR, 107 RBI) has been somewhat of a disappointment as well. Rightfielder Jose Guillen, signed away from Washington, is a professional hitter and should help the Mariners score runs. Leftfielder Raul Ibanez (.289 BA, 33 HR, 123 RBI) is a legitimate star. Defensively, Ichiro Suzuki will move from right field to center, and the outfield of Ibanez, Ichiro, and Guillen make up one of the better outfields around. The Mariners could be a sleeper in the AL West, but another season of mediocrity seems more likely.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays: UNDER 66.5

The Devil Rays went 61-101 last year, and will likely lose at least 100 games again this year. The Rays have some good young talent. Lefty Scott Kazmir (10-8, 3.24 ERA, 163 K in 24 starts last year) may eventually develop into a legitimate ace if he can stay healthy. Third baseman B.J. Upton and outfielder Delmon Young will both be stars someday. Leftfielder Carl Crawford is coming off an excellent 2006 (.305 BA, 18 HR, 77 RBI, 58 SB), and at age 25 is already entering his fifth full season in the big leagues. Centerfielder Rocco Baldelli is productive when healthy. The main problem with this team is that they lack the resources to complement their young talent with more established players. They end up with a bunch of guys nobody else wanted – pitchers Casey Fossum and Jae Seo, infielders Greg Norton and Ty Wigginton – because that’s all they can afford. (Wigginton did have a good year in 2006.) The starting pitchers other than Kazmir will get clobbered again, especially against the three excellent hitting teams in their own division (New York, Boston, and Toronto). The bullpen is dreadful. Seth McClung is penciled in as the closer despite a career ERA north of six. If everyone stays healthy and Jorge Cantu (.286 BA, 28 HR, 117 RBI in 2005, but just .249/14/62 in ’06) rediscovers his swing, they’ll score a lot more runs this year. But in the end, you get what you pay for, and the D-Rays’ meager payroll will once again buy them a 100-loss season.

Texas Rangers: UNDER 81.0

This team looks decent enough on paper: plenty of offense, great bullpen, and at least a couple good starting pitchers (Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla). But things never seem to add up for the Rangers. Pitching in hitter-friendly Ameriquest Field tends to wear down even the best starters. Millwood is a frontline guy in his prime, as evidenced by his 3.74 road ERA last year, but he posted a 5.38 ERA at home. After Millwood and Padilla, the starting rotation is a bit thin. Brandon McCarthy, still just 23 years old, has good stuff and dominates lefties (.197 BAA last year), but whether he is ready to start at the major league level remains to be seen. Texas really needs a breakout season from McCarthy in order to contend, and that’s asking a lot. Robinson Tejada (5-5, 4.28 ERA in 2006) and Kameron Loe (3-6, 5.86) round out the rotation and figure to get hit pretty hard. The bullpen should perform well. New closer Eric Gagne may or may not stay healthy, but even if he doesn’t, Akinori Otsuka (2.11 ERA, 32 saves in 2006) is a perfectly capable closer. The offense should once again score plenty of runs. The outfield took a hit with the departure of Gary Matthews, Jr., but new additions Kenny Lofton and Frank Catalanotto are decent hitters. The infield, with Mark Teixeira at first, Ian Kinsler at second, Michael Young at short, and Hank Blalock at third, is as good as any around. I like this team and would love to take the over here, but I can’t pull the trigger. 81 seems high, and unlike the AL East and Central, there are no cheap wins in the West -- no Tampa Bay or Kansas City to beat up on. They’ll end up duking it out with Seattle for third place.

Toronto Blue Jays: UNDER 86.5

The Blue Jays put together a decent season in 2006, finishing 87-75 and finally overtaking Boston for second place in the AL East. It will be difficult for Toronto to match last year’s win total in 2007. After a career year (15 wins, 4.31 ERA) in 2006, Ted Lilly signed with the Cubs, and Toronto really did not acquire anyone to replace him. After Roy Halliday, the starting rotation is weak. The vastly overrated A.J. Burnett (10-8, 3.98 ERA in 21 starts in 2006) is OK when healthy but has never won more than 12 games in a season. Gustavo Chacin, Tomo Ohka, and John Thomson are all below average. The bullpen, anchored by closer B.J. Ryan (1.37 ERA, 38 saves in 2006), held opponents to a .246 BA last year and should be fine again this year. The outfield of Reed Johnson (.390 OBP, .869 OPS last year), Vernon Wells (.303 BA, 32 HR, 106 RBI), and Alex Rios (.301/17/82) is excellent, and the infield is solid at the corners with Lyle Overbay (.312/22/92) at first and Troy Glaus (.252/38/104) at third. Journeyman Royce Clayton will play short, and promising youngster Aaron Hill (.308 BA after May 1 last year) will start at second. New DH Frank Thomas will be hard-pressed to match last year’s production but should give the offense a boost anyway. The Blue Jays will score runs, but their starting pitching will be their undoing.

*All over/unders were taken from sportsbook.com