Write On Sports LLC - "Tournament Superlatives" by Andrew Berg

Tournament Superlatives

2007-03-14 01:03:35 | By: Andrew Berg

After much contemplation, I have concluded that it is terrible karma to pick against my team in my NCAA tournament bracket. I have heard enough arguments about hedging ones bets, putting money on one’s opponent to defray the disappointment with a monetary payoff. Predicting that sort of fate, though, can have terribly negative cosmic effects, the same way that a fan’s pair of underwear or a beard can make the difference between winning and losing. Ultimately, I think that Georgetown has the fourth or fifth best chance at winning the tournament, so it is not as if I’m stuck pulling for Albany or some other bracket destroyer. So even if I think Florida will win the tournament, I can still feel pretty good about my bracket having them lose to the Hoyas in the finals, especially since it keeps the karmic universe in balance. Instead of explaining my disingenuous bracket, today I would prefer to give a nod to the Hare Krishnas everywhere while looking at a few of the most interesting subplots of the upcoming tournament.

Best Conference Record: Memphis and Winthrop (tie)

Although 17-1 Davidson takes the crown for most conference wins, even they cannot beat perfection, as Memphis and Winthrop made it through their conference schedules unblemished. On the other hand, High Point and UCF were the second best teams in the two conferences, and each champion represents its conference by itself in the tournament. I learned more about Memphis by watching them struggle past an undermanned Gonzaga team, shoot and defend miserably against a weak Houston squad, and play a little too close for comfort against Matt Doherety’s SMU team- a game in which I took Memphis -14.5 and saw them flailing to keep their heads above water. A gaudy record in a weak conference probably does less to prepare a team for March success than staying just above .500 in a power conference. For that reason, I think the combined 30-0 record in conference is worth about one NCAA tournament win between the two, and that a team like 10th seeded Georgia Tech is a better bet for the Sweet 16 than either of the other two.

Most Underrated Team: Kentucky

With 11 losses, nothing resembling SEC preeminence, and Tubby Smith on a seat that is at least lukewarm, Kentucky may seem like a hopeless case going into the tourney. On the other hand, the Wildcats played the toughest schedule in the country and rank all the way up at number 13 in the RPI. In fact, they are the highest rated team in the RPI that appears in neither the AP nor the Coaches Poll, making them a prime subject for widespread ignorance. With Randolph Morris starting to look like the NBA prospect he once aspired to be with a 29 point game in the SEC tournament, the Wildcats have the ability to play the sort of inside-out game that allows for consistency in the dance. Even if Kentucky does not have the star power of Rick Pitino’s teams from the mid-90’s, the cupboard is far from bare with an experienced coach and a star center; the team’s strong record across a killer schedule bears witness to that fact.

Most Overrated Conference: Pac-10

I watched most of the Pac-10 tournament during my recent trip to the West Coast, and I pointed out at least once per game that the conference is completely unwatchable. At the top, UCLA seems like a legitimate contender, but they are essentially a displaced Big East team. Ben Howland has slowed down the game for the Bruins to the point where they can actually play passable defense, and they have enough skilled offensive players trying to play together that they can hang with any team in the country. The rest of the conference completely lacks offensive continuity and does not even pretend to care on the defensive end. Arizona has some talent on offense, but the offense looks like a freeform improv session, and even the stars look like young Dirk Nowitzkis on defense. Washington State plays defense, but look like their roster from someone in the WCC, and their weak, disjointed offense mirrors the mid-major style. Oregon’s guards are two individual bright spots, but the lack of any interior defenders, rebounders, or appropriately-sized perimeter defenders leaves the Ducks susceptible to giving up 90 points to a team hitting its shots. Stanford is as soft as ever, and I’m not sure whether Tim Floyd failed to get USC to buy into his offensive system, or if the team has just completely ignored him. Either way, the Trojans constantly play one-on-one basketball while letting the other four players languish in perimeter obscurity. In the ACC, only UCLA would be a sure thing to go .500. In the tournament, only UCLA is a good bet to make the Sweet 16.

Best Case Against the Committee: Syracuse

Jim Boeheim called out Doug Gotleib for reversing course between Saturday night and the bracket analysis on Sunday, gratifying everyone who rightly hates Doug Gotleib and everything he stands for. That jab does little to soothe Orange fans’ spirits, though, as Syracuse becomes that unlucky 10-6 Big East team to watch the tournament from home. Not two weeks ago, I saw the Orange maim Georgetown in the Carrier Dome, thinking that the combination of good outside shooting and plenty of experience and size in the front court could make Syracuse very tough in the tournament. Now, I am left wondering whether Cuse would lay 8 or 10 points to Stanford if the two ever met on a neutral court.

Drexel also has a decent case for inclusion, though they lost some pretty terrible games along the way to a 13-5 record in the less-than-stellar Colonial. Road records do not have much to do with the ability to play on a neutral court; neither does the small sample size of a conference tournament. Instead, I prefer to look at how many games a team has won against top-25 or top-50 opponents, since the tournament committee’s primary obligation is to include teams that have a chance at winning several games, and teams that have proven they can beat good opponents are more likely to repeat that feat than those that have lost lots of games to lesser opposition. Since we know that Syracuse is capable of beating Georgetown, there is no reason to think that they could not at least play with any team in the field, which is a pretty good reason to put them in the bracket.