Write On Sports LLC - "Thoughts on the Nuggets' Answer" by Matthew Wolf

Thoughts on the Nuggets' Answer

2006-12-19 19:40:05 | By: Matthew Wolf

Its very interesting. While I'm not the biggest Andre Miller fan (and not the least bit because Kiki thought that was a better signing than Arenas), I did like him as a distributor and defensive player. He is great when other guys are well, his biggest problem is that he really can't help take a game over if needed because he can't shoot. But he was averaging like 9 apg and boards well for a guard. I would have liked to keep him for sure...but frankly, I'd rather have Nene.

Most critics of this deal are harping on how the Nuggets are mortgaging their future, which I think is inaccurate. They obviously are giving up 2 picks in a deep, deep draft, but they are in a win-soon mode and don't have time to wait for draft picks: Camby is not going to be this effective for another 5 years. They need to make a move while he is healthy and playing well. Further, these are likely to be late round picks. If they somehow gave up the rights to Oden it would be a disaster, but that seems to be very unlikely. So, they make their move when: Carmelo is coming into his own and Camby and Iverson are in their primes (or relatively close thereto). Not having Martin for these two years is an obvious drawback, but not much can be done about it. As for the "giving up the future" argument, Melo is 22, Nene is 24, and JR Smith is 21. If, after 2 years, Iverson doesn't work out, he comes off the books (at like $20 million) and one year later, Kmart comes off at $15 mil or so. At that point, Nene will either be blossoming or officially a bust, but Melo and Smith will still be very young, and either: (a) Iverson worked out and you resign him and are hopefully a title challenger; or (b) it didn't work out and you have tons of cap space to build around the core of Melo/Smith/Nene. Also, other key guys like Reggie Evans and potentially Leinas Kleiza (who I can see developing into a good 7th man) are very young too.

The upshot: it's a two year, supervolatile adventure. If it works, it will be fantastic. If not, they really aren't screwed at all long term, and they'll still be fun to watch.

The key questions:

1. Obviously, can Melo and Iverson play together? Iverson does average a lot of assists, and he's never played with a true superstar (not counting Webber here, who is way over the hill). Iverson wants to show the world (and the Sixers in particular) that he's a winner. He's also unquestionably a warrior who will bring it every night. Carmelo has been doing wonders for his own rep as a team guy etc (recent events notwithstanding). No doubt that they both WANT to make it work. I don't know if there's any example of this happening in the past (two shoot-first superstars in the same backcourt), but I think that it is reasonably likely that they will work it out.

2. Can they play any defense? Denver is already a bad defensive team, with only Camby as a truly good defensive player currently in the rotation. (Miller was good; JR is not good; Melo is better than he used to be but hardly lockdown; Evans is a fantastic rebounder but not an outstanding 1 on 1 defender; Najera works his asss off but is physically overmatched most nights; Martin obvously would help here; Nene is still injured; Diawara shows some stopper potential but is young; Boykins is not very tall; Kleiza is a Euro even if he went to college in the US). They will have to outscore people, for sure.

3. What will the rest of the team do? Smith has been great, but is looking at fewer shots, and everyone else is going to have to scrap for anything (and, few people probably know this, but Boykins is a world-class chucker, and anytime he's in the game Melo and Iverson will have to scrap for shots). Camby, despite not being an offensive threat, pops off every now and again about touches. This is where Martin's injury is actually helpful, because he wants the ball whereas Najera and Evans don't.

4. Will Nene develop? Dude is making 10 mil per year, but is obviously not healthy yet. He needs to be a star (or at least capable of putting up big #s) for the Nugs to be a true title contender. He certainly has the tools. Does he have the motivation? Will he always be hurt? Will he be hacked that he never gets touches? Big question.

5. Who gets the game winner? In other words the "last shot factor." This will be a critical issue. Obvously, they now have 2 great options. But this was Melo's job (and Iverson's in Philly), and we know that NBA stars always want the last shot. Karl will have to earn his paycheck managing this situation...

At the end fo the day, the Nuggets are now the most interesting team in the league and a threat every night, so on that simple calculus it's a good deal.

Bottom line: I like the move.