Write On Sports LLC - "Don't Trust the Polls!" by Troy Somero

Don't Trust the Polls!

2006-11-24 19:24:52 | By: Troy Somero

If there is one glaring error in the BCS process that has been exemplified by the college basketball season so far this month, it is the fact that human polls have such a large margin of error that they simply cannot be trusted to help choose one or two teams deserving of a national championship in any sport.

Sure, the BCS process has helped make the Harris Interactive and USA Today Coaches polls less significant in determining a national champion, but the fact that polls carry as much weight as they do in the BCS Standings is startling to college football fans who still desire a truly objective means of determining a national champion. As it stands today, the BCS Rankings are comprised of three major numbers that are averaged together: Harris Interactive, USA Today Coaches, and the computing ranking (which is actually the average of six different computer ranking systems). More information about the BCS Ranking process can be found here.

Thus, two-thirds of the weight of the BCS process is determined by pollsters. While Ohio State is unquestionably the best team in the country as of today, the two of three numbers that have propelled Ohio State to the top stop in the BCS are based entirely on human voting. Only one-third of the rankings actually takes things such as strength of schedule and win margin into account through analytical, objective means. Therefore, the solution to the problem that initiated the BCS movement in the 1990s in the first place – using a mathematical formula to determine the top two teams in college football – is plagued by the same problem that initiated the BCS Ranking system itself – the lack of an objective means to determine the top two teams in college football.

Nowhere has this inherent error of the BCS been more evident than in the first month of the college basketball season, where rankings have proven completely useless in gauging who the top teams are three weeks into the season. The following is a list of higher-ranked college basketball teams that have lost to lower ranked/unranked teams through Thanksgiving (rankings are based on the ESPN/USA Today College Basketball Poll):

§ November 12: (10) Arizona 90 - Virginia 93
§ November 13: (14) Boston College 63 – Vermont 77
§ November 15: (3) Kansas 71 – Oral Roberts 77
§ November 16: (18) Texas 61 – Michigan State 63
§ November 18: (25) Creighton 61 – Nebraska 73
§ November 19: (8) Georgetown 62- Old Dominion 75
§ November 21: (8) Duke 62 – (17) Marquette 73
§ November 21: (11) Memphis 85 - (19) Georgia Tech 92
§ November 22: (2) North Carolina 74 – (23) Gonzaga 82
§ November 22: (21) Tennessee 44 – Butler 56

Ten ranked teams over the course of ten days in the college basketball season have lost to teams that are ranked lower than them. The sheer number of "upsets" this early in the college basketball season demonstrates two facts: (1) there is a large amount of parity in men's college basketball this season, and (2), rankings mean absolutely nothing once teams step on the court. A team ranked on top of the AP Poll in November has the same chance to win the national championship as a team that is ranked on top of the ESPN/USA Today Poll in late February. In addition, the underdogs that "upset" the favorites in the poll this early in the season gain something from the upset victories because it makes their tournament resumes that much better in the spring if the NCAA Selection Committee has to decide between Creighton and Nebraska or Arizona and Vermont for the last at-large bid into the tournament.

The reason I bring up the college basketball polls in comparison to the college football polls is because both are completely subjective. However, the college basketball national champion is not decided by polls. If it was, George Mason would never have gotten an at-large bid to the dance and Florida would have been playing in the basketball equivalent of the Outback Bowl in March 2006. While everyone recognizes that a playoff format in college football would be both the fairest way to decide a national champion and a less financially rewarding method for Division I-A institutions (bowls = money) to determine a national champion, the current method itself is not even the best method for using polls to determine a national champion. Three teams near the top of the BCS Rankings demonstrate this point very well: Michigan, Notre Dame, and Louisville.

Michigan – I have to be honest – I love the Wolverines. They have gone out this season and beaten all the teams they have had to beat to garner a number two ranking in the BCS. They played Ohio State very well down to the last drive in Columbus and nearly came out on top. Most importantly, they recognize the inherent problems with the BCS system but have not complained about them. However, putting all of these positives aside the Wolverines already had their shot at Ohio State (even though it was in Columbus) and they lost. If USC loses one of its last two games and the other top one-loss teams win out, there is a chance that Michigan could still earn the second spot in the BCS Championship Game. With a playoff system, Michigan would have to knock off two or three other teams before it earned the right to play Ohio State again. With the BCS system, they benefit from having the last two weeks of the season off while teams like USC, Notre Dame, Arkansas, and Louisville face difficult opponents.

Notre Dame – I have to be honest – I hate the Fighting Irish. No team has a more-inflated BCS ranking than Notre Dame, a program that year-in and year-out over the last decade has not even been among the top fifteen programs in the country but continues to draw unwarranted attention come BCS selection season. The computers have Notre Dame ranked fifth in the BCS Standings, but much of this is due to the fact that Notre Dame has escaped most of its games against major programs (see,e.g. UCLA, Michigan State) and has spanked its relatively weak opponents at the service schools. If Notre Dame crushes USC and Florida loses one of its final games, there is a chance that Notre Dame could pass Michigan and enter the BCS Championship. Michigan fans would not be too pleased by that outcome, especially after their team's 47-21 dismantling of the then second-ranked Irish in September.

Louisville – I have to be honest – it has been a tough month for the Big East after it entered the middle of October with three undefeated teams. Louisville's collapse against Rutgers ended its shot at an unbeaten season and likely ended all its chances at a spot in the BCS Championship. Despite this, the human element has punished Louisville more in the BCS Rankings than anything Louisville has done itself. Louisville beat West Virginia 44-34 earlier this month but football fans would not know this by looking at the polls. The Harris Poll ranks West Virginia seventh and Louisville tenth. The USA Today Coaches Poll ranks West Virginia seventh and Louisville eleventh. However, the computers rank West Virginia ninth and Louisville sixth, ahead of Arkansas and just behind Notre Dame. Translation: the BCS Rankings (two-third human rankings, one-third computer rankings) rank West Virginia seventh and Louisville ninth. West Virginia could make this all moot by defeating Rutgers next weekend, but if the top teams in the BCS ranking collapse this weekend and Louisville loses out on a BCS bowl bid to West Virginia, the Cardinal faithful will have a bone to pick with the people at Harris and USA Today.

As the season ends, I am sure everyone on the BCS Committee is cheering for USC to win its last two games and claim the second BCS Championship spot, setting up a match-up of teams that will likely have the top two rankings in all three BCS-related polls. However, it should not have to come down to this feel of hope and prayer for the national championship to feature the two most-deserving teams. This college basketball season has already demonstrated how little credibility polls have in their ability to access the best teams in the country. Even though a playoff system would help eliminate all polling issues in determining a national champion, the BCS itself has so much room for improvement as a result of the emphasis on two subjective polls. Until the BCS bases the majority of its ranking system on objective categories like strength of schedule instead of subjective categories like college names and a school's celebrity status within the sport, college basketball will have a leg-up on college football in deciding a true national champion. And to think Florida was not even ranked before the 2005-06 college basketball season…