Write On Sports LLC - "BONANZA! Top 10 Free Agents 2006-2007" by Andrew Berg

BONANZA! Top 10 Free Agents 2006-2007

2006-11-09 02:06:12 | By: Andrew Berg

Major League Baseball awards can only mean one thing: it is now truly the off season. Time to use your game programs for kindling and bust out that ear-marked copy of Total Baseball for another Hot Stove season, an exciting endeavor for any fan of projection and speculation, such as myself. Last year, I attempted to predict where my top 10 free agents would land, and what sort of deal each one would fetch. While I did a pretty solid job up and down the rankings of picking teams and contract lengths, I wildly underestimated how much money teams would shell out for second-tier starting pitchers. Hopefully, I have learned my lesson, and will be able to get even closer to the actual salaries for this year’s free agent class. So, let’s see… Barry Zito is clearly a more productive pitcher than A.J. Burnett, who got close to $60 million in a less bullish market than this one. Does that make Zito worth $80 million over 6 years, or did Burnett charge extra for that shark in his elbow? Regardless of the actual dollar amounts, lots of teams are going to spend way too much money on overrated players because they have money and needs, regardless of whether the available talent fills those needs.

Free Agents Emeritus: Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte- Although neither pitcher is under contract, and both are free to go to any team they choose, I hasten to call either of them “free agents” for two reasons. First, they are not truly “free,” since there is no chance that either of them will sign outside of New York or Houston- or maybe Boston in certain circumstances. I did not include them in my list because I think there is at least a 50% chance that both of them will retire. At very least, I would be surprised to see Clemens return by the start of next season, so I will not include him on my list. Pettitte is on the border as to whether he would be in the top 10 anyway, so the risk of flakiness makes me drop him off the list altogether. If I had to rank them, Pettitte would rank right behind Edmonds, and Clemens would be between Matsuzaka and Schmidt.

10. Jim Edmonds- Given the shortage of up-the-middle talent on the free agent market, Edmonds brings a unique defensive ability to whichever team signs him. Granted, he looked lost in the postseason due to his concussion late in the year, and his bat has deteriorated very quickly for the last two years. As a result, we have to stop thinking of him as “Jim Edmonds, Hall of Fame Centerfielder,” and start thinking of him as “Jim Edmonds, Above-Average Veteran.” The skeptic in me recalls Steve Finley’s situation two years ago, parlaying a big late-season run into a two-year deal where the downside was shrouded by rose-colored glasses. Nonetheless, Edmonds has always been a better player than Finley, and anything close to a full recovery from his injury should mean that his decline phase stays on that level. He has the smarts and just enough moves to keep his head well above water in the field, making the prospect of .260/.350/.450 quite valuable. If an inferior line can earn Torii Hunter $12 million each year, then a two-year commitment to Edmonds balances a high probability of value with an acceptably limited risk of failure. With an already porous and thin outfield, I cannot see the Cardinals sacrificing their postseason momentum; I suspect they will work out a deal to keep him in town.
Prediction: 2 years, $16 million with St. Louis.

9. Barry Bonds- Obviously, Bonds has had the best career of anyone on the list, though that says little of what we can expect over the life of his next deal. His injury history, limited appeal, petulance, and divisiveness drop him down even lower than he would be based on his diminished skill and long-term viability. To me, the main issue revolving around Bonds in this off-season is the role that his status plays in the future of the Giants organization. He draws in the Bay Area, and many believe that he will draw only in the Bay Area, making him uniquely valuable to the Giants and the A’s, who already have their own version of a well-aged, plodding slugger with an enormous injury risk.

Whenever Bonds leaves the Giants, they will launch full-bore into a rebuilding project that will require the rejuvenation of not only the Major League lineup, but the entire farm system, which has been systematically mortgaged for a couple of runs at the pennant with Bonds at the core. The question becomes whether they want to accept that painful fate today or stave it off for a little longer. The high end for a team with Bonds, which was once certain title contention, is probably something closer to making a run at the below-average NL West, but the alternative is to win about 70 games and be out of the race by the All-Star Break. The bigger difference may be in the revenue, as the fan base expects both wins and Bonds, and may settle for nothing less. Even though the Giants’ owner is reportedly ready to move forward with a new approach, I would re-sign Bonds in a heartbeat considering nothing more than his marketability in that part of the country. If the Giants reject him outright, he will probably face a choice between the Angels and a group of overpriced non-contenders who mistakenly think they are a move away from winning. Also, do not rule out the Diamondbacks, who have been bold and creative under the management of Josh Byrnes, et al.
Prediction: 1 year, $15 million with San Francisco

8. Mike Mussina- Technically, Moose is a free agent since the Yankees chose not to exercise his 1-year, $17 million option that would have capped off a contract signed back in the flush years of the A-Rod and Manny deals. That said, the Yankees almost certainly will try to get him back at a reduced rate, even if that means committing to him through the next two high-risk seasons. Mussina has shown a proclivity for nagging injuries over the last couple of years, but he has had an encouraging level of consistency and success over the full seasons considering that level of adversity.

A writer from Fox Sports mentioned that Torre and Cashman will collectively do their best to crowd the rotation in the off-season, pursuing three names that will show up higher on the list- Zito, Schmidt, Matsuzaka- to go with big commitments for Randy Johnson, Jaret Wright, and Carl Pavano, not to mention Chien-Ming Wang at the top of the rotation. Taking the imminent arrival of Philip Hughes into account, the Yankees have a fairly talented, though injury prone rotation on the books for next season (honestly, Jaret Wright is fine as a number 5, just a little overpriced, and this team does not mind paying).

The other side of the coin is that the Yankees rotation, while nearly full on paper, simply has not been very good in their most recent Championship drought, and the front office would do well to realize that the difference between $200 million and $230 million could mean the difference between contending for a ring and starting suboptimal pitchers in big games. Maybe Wright and Pavano would be better off in the bullpen to help preserve their health. Maybe Hughes would best be used as a swingman while he passes through the high-risk period in his early 20s. Maybe Randy Johnson is a half-season from becoming the most intimidating lefty-specialist of all time. As long as the Yankees focus on winning championships, pitching depth will be a friend, not an enemy. Wang-Johnson-Pavano-Wright-Hughes, or Zito-Wang-Mussina-Johnson-Pavano? I will take the latter each day of the week and twice on Sunday, even if it cuts into the team’s enormous profits a little. Plus, they have to take into account the consideration that they Mets will be circling like vultures, praying that negotiations break down, and the Phillies will be close on their heels, both with ample money to spend.
Prediction: 2 years, $25 million with New York (AL)

7. Tom Glavine- Quite a reversal of fortunes, going from forced retirement to the playoff success to marquee free agent over a couple of months. Inevitably, everyone wants to see Glavine go back to Atlanta because it makes for good copy to see him pursue win #300 in the same place where he got the first 200+. Moreover, Glavine is a genuinely likable player, seemingly a good guy who gets by on guts and smarts. Those who do not like him probably feel that way due to lingering resentment against the dominance of the ‘90s Braves rather than any intrinsic element of his personality on the field. Still, does it make sense for a team who finished well out of contention to spend big money on a player who cannot come close to getting them back in the division race? I think the Braves could only sign Glavine if they think of him as a marketing draw, and the answer to that is well beyond my data.

The team that most needs every pitcher they can get in order to stay in contention is the Mets, whose pitching is completely in shambles. Last winter and spring, analysts panned Omar Minaya for giving up Jae Seo and Kris Benson for nickels on the dime. As the season wore on, Pedro Martinez and Glavine predictably broke down, not to mention in-season patch-job El Duque missing time late in the year. The fact is that a dominant offense featuring Wright, Reyes, and Beltran will not be nearly enough to make up for a rotation of Steve Traschel, Brian Bannister, John Maine, and the completely uncertain future of Victor Zambrano. They do not even have the bullpen to compensate, as Roberto Hernandez and Guillermo Mota go from postseason heroes to a puff of smoke. Even Aaron Heilman’s future is uncertain, as he is needed in two places at once, and probably will not be a very good starter if he is also the team’s primary setup man. In other words, the Mets need Glavine, and they cannot stop there. Expect to see them on the short list of teams for each major free agent starter, nabbing at least one in addition to keeping their own guys around.
Prediction: 2 years, $24 million with New York (NL)

6. Carlos Lee- Remember, runs are runs, and a half run per game does pretty much the same thing to your W-L record as shaving a half run off the runs allowed column. With that said, Lee may be one of the greatest values near the top of the free agent market, since nearly every team wants starting pitching, but only a few are seeking corner bats. There is something to be said for chaining- the effect of being able to make your fourth starter your fifth when you add a new top-of-the-rotation stud- and the related true replacement level. Think of it in the context of the Yankees rotation, which I cited earlier: signing Barry Zito as an ace would not take playing time away from otherwise ace Chien-Ming Wang, but from Jaret Wright, a sizeable upgrade. Since the playing-time distribution for position players does not work based on a rotation, signing Lee would fill in directly for the previous leftfielder. At first, it might seem like that fact works as a disadvantage, since outfielders and first basemen seem readily available, and that may even be true in several situations. In this case, however, I believe that teams will pursue starting pitchers so hard that the marginal gain from a new starter over the average replacement level would not compensate for the added price, especially considering the risk of breakdown over the life of a pitcher’s contract.

Take, for example, the Baltimore Orioles, who figure to be major players for Lee. The Orioles need starting pitching as much as or more than other teams, returning a rotation of perpetually disappointing prospects and journeymen with their tanks on empty. The Orioles also employed Jay Gibbons, Kevin Millar, Jeff Conine, and Javy Lopez in major roles at DH or on the corners. Going into next year, Nick Markakis is the only one out of those positions who figures to be worth more than about 20 runs above the theoretical replacement level. Say the Orioles have to choose where to allocate their money between five-year deals for Lee or, say, Barry Zito. Zito and Lee will command similar amounts of money over similarly lengthy contracts, although Zito may require an extra year when accounting for the Boras factor.

Zito will bump the Orioles fifth starter out of the rotation, and a reasonably optimistic scenario would see him average 35-40 runs above replacement rather than the decidedly replacement-level starters they have had in that role in recent years. Lee would offer a similar upside, if not 5-10 runs higher, and would replace a similarly deficient incumbent, if not slightly better than the replaced pitcher. In other words, Lee and a top-level pitcher will probably give the team as much traction toward wins. While chaining means that pitchers could theoretically be worth more for the average team, it also drives up the demand since every team has to employ not one, but five to six starting pitchers. The market for bats on the corners is much more limited, meaning that teams bidding for Lee will only have to compete with five or six other teams, who have the option of going after Bonds, Soriano, Carlos Delgado, Mark Teixeira, or Manny Ramirez as well. Teams seeking an ace starter are limited to Zito, Matsuzaka, Schmidt, and maybe Dontrelle Willis, and there are at least ten teams in the market.

With that said, some of the teams who need the corner bats may not reap the full reward of having them. The Orioles, Cubs, and Braves could use those players, but would be paying truckloads of money for players who cannot get them close to the postseason sweepstakes. While I believe in the argument I have made above, I will listen to the reasoning that says the need for such a player is endemic to a team that needs a lot of help across the roster. Corner talent is abundant, and it is possible that these teams need those bats because they have mismanaged their teams in general, not because they have done a good job elsewhere while missing one little aspect. Still, considering that big-time contenders like the Twins, Tigers, and A’s also need exactly those types of players makes me think that teams can succeed without first pursuing old-player skills. Oddly enough, the Twins and Tigers would look much shinier with Lee, but the Cubs and Orioles are the teams who have generated the most hype about signing him.
Prediction: 5 years, $75 million with Baltimore

5. Alfonso Soriano- I suspect that most free agent lists would have Zito and Soriano as interchangeable numbers one and two, perhaps with a few placing Matsuzaka near the top of the list. And while I just finished dissing the idea of overspending on pitching due to the market conditions, I am still placing Soriano a little further down the list. To see why, I will start by looking at some of the things that Soriano does well. He hits lots of homeruns, and does so consistently enough in variable circumstances that it is clearly a repeatable skill rather than a product of his time in hitter-friendly Arlington. He runs very well, getting a handful of cheap hits and stealing bases well enough to make it an asset for the team. In further defense, what some may call his greatest offensive weakness- his capacity to strike out- is not nearly the weakness that some may think it is, since his power numbers show the upside of swinging for the fences on any count. Finally, he provides his team with some versatility, since he can nominally play multiple defensive positions, at least 2B and LF, perhaps even RF or CF.

That is the way an optimist may frame the Soriano scouting report. Conversely, I could describe him as an undisciplined hitter whose lack of patience means that his power may eventually dry up, as it did somewhat before moving to the National League. His speed is useful, though he does not use it optimally since he also runs into plenty of outs, and all of these problems are compounded by the fact that he does not field well enough to have a true position anywhere on the field. Most importantly, the skills that he does possess are the ones that certain executives tend to overvalue. Soriano will make top dollar, not necessarily because he has the total package to offer to a team, but because he has the specific package of skills that makes him extremely appealing.

If you think Soriano might end up as a bargain, consider the opposite type of player from Soriano. He would be quietly consistent at a premium defensive position, would hit for power without hitting a huge number of homeruns, would draw lots of walks, pulling up an OBP without a flashy batting average. For the purposes of this discussion, I will call such a player “Craig Biggio,” someone who has played for a dozen contenders over the last couple of decades, contributing a remarkably stable level of performance far below the radar. Biggio has never made $15 million in a season. He has never been overexposed, and he still does not get the credit that he deserves. If the opposite player type of Soriano is chronically underpaid, it does not necessarily follow that Soriano would be overpaid. Even so, trust me, he will be overpaid.
Prediction: 6 years, $100 million with New York (NL)

4. Aramis Ramirez- The top ranked position player on my list is one who was not even sure to be a free agent a few weeks ago after opting out of the end of his deal with the Cubs. Unlike Soriano, whose unharmonious time in Washington grew his free agent buzz through the year, Ramirez sprung up at the last moment. If you pay attention to what the teams are saying instead of sportswriters, you will notice that almost every team has an interest in Ramirez, probably because he plays a thin position fairly well, has several good years in front of him, and has a middle-of-the-order bat. Comparing his line directly to Soriano’s, the two are nearly indistinguishable. Ramirez hit .291/.352/.561 against Soriano’s .277/.351/.560. Soriano was still more valuable for his peripheral contributions, such as 41 steals, only 3 GIDP, and 4 times more intentional walks. I prefer Ramirez anyway, because Soriano’s glove is already suspect, and will likely only get worse as he gets further on the wrong side of 30. Moreover, Soriano just posted his career-best OBP and SLG in his age 30 season, not a position that cries out “repeatable.” Ramirez, on the other hand, posted nearly the exact same batting line at a more difficult defensive position, is two years younger than the Fonz, and had played at an even higher level for two years before the two matched each other in 2006. Setting all of that aside, Ramirez will likely come a little cheaper, which is an important consideration in a year where salaries will likely explode.

More generally, Ramirez plays at a position with a little more scarcity than Soriano. A huge number of potential contenders either have an uncertain situation at third base, or could really use an upgrade to get them over the hump. The Padres, Dodgers, Giants, Phillies, Angels, and Twins all have weak spots at third. The Red Sox, Indians, Astros, and Reds have at least some uncertainty going forward. And the Rangers, Brewers, and Tigers could be in search of a third baseman before too long, as they have all discussed moving their current starters. Maybe the competition will drive the bidding for Ramirez through the roof, but he has handled his free agency in a low-key way so far, which could very easily continue. As I see it, Ramirez would be best used on a team that already has an established core and could add him on the margins to give them a couple of extra wins. The Dodgers and Angels definitely fit the description, and the Phillies would be wise to try to get into the conversation, as their third base void was more of a problem than their starting rotation at the end of the season.
Prediction: 5 years, $65 million with Los Angeles (NL)

3. Jason Schmidt- Like Ramirez, Schmidt has not received so much media attention in the last few months about his impending free agency. In fact, he has been so overlooked that the Giants supposedly considered trading him to the White Sox at the trade deadline to get something in return, even though they were still in the playoff race. I would guess that Schmidt lost some of his momentum in 2005, when he battled injuries to a 4.40 ERA in 172 IP, his worst results after assuming star status upon his trade to the Giants in mid-season 2001. Over that span, he struck out at least 180 batters in four out of his five full seasons, won 78 games, and never gave up more than 21 homeruns. Certainly, his home park has helped keep the HR and ERA totals down, but no matter how you look at it, Schmidt has been one of the more consistent and durable starters over the last five years, and should continue to be for a few more years. He may not bridge into the “ace” category that people like Scott Boras like to mention, though that is no knock considering that he is easily one of the 30 best starting pitchers in the majors, probably ranking much higher.

My first impression of Schmidt’s free agency was that he would prove to be the steal of the free agent market. He is not so terribly far behind Zito in terms of what I would expect from him in the next two or three years, and pitchers of his type tend to age at least reasonably well. One major concern is that his three most similar pitchers through age 33 won a combined zero games after their age 33 seasons. Jack McDowell and Ramon Martinez never pitched again, and Bartolo Colon, like Schmidt, will enter his age-34 season in 2007. Even with that caveat, I believe that Schmidt could be a very good player over the life of his contract, and Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA forecaster agrees, giving him between 20-25% chance of being a “superstar” caliber player from now until 2009.

One factor that has changed between the time I started thinking about the free agent market and today is the level of attention teams have paid to Schmidt as a top-shelf starter. While he received almost no love in early discussions, which all seemed to center around Barry Zito, Schmidt’s name now crops up right behind Zito’s in nearly every conversation about starting pitching. Although I do not think less of him as a player, I do think less of him as a free agent, as the buzz will translate into a more burdensome contract.
Prediction: 4 years, $50 million with Boston

2. Daisuke Matsuzaka- I wish I could say more about Matsuzaka. Watching him in the WBC, he looked like a dominant number one starter. Then again, lots of dominant number one starters looked like career minor leaguers in the WBC, and others who dominated did so against week competition. Contrary to rumors, he does not throw a gyroball, at least not yet, and at least not in games. He has generated a lot of buzz as one of the top pitchers in baseball. How much of that is Scott Boras blowing smoke across the continent, I have no idea.

To me, the most interesting part of Matsuzaka’s transition into the Major Leagues is the mainstreaming of the posting process that brings players across the Pacific. As far as reports have indicated, any team that wants to bid for Matsuzaka will post a sealed bid to the Japanese league, at which point, the league will hand over the highest bid to Matsuzaka’s team. Whichever team submitted the highest bid will then give that amount of money to the Japanese team, and they will have exclusive negotiating rights with the player, which might hamstring Scott Boras in the negotiations since he cannot play teams against one another. If the team makes a good faith effort to sign Matsuzaka and fails, he can return to his Japanese team, or the team can choose to accept the second highest posting bid, and he can negotiate with that team. What constitutes a “good faith” negotiation seems arbitrary to me, and Bud Selig makes the determination as to whether a second team gets involved, which seems like a problem in the process.

Another problem comes from the possibility for corruption, such as a secret agreement between two teams. Say, for example, an American team places a sealed bid of $200 million, a number that would obviously win the bidding. But instead of actually paying the $200 million, they would have a hush-hush agreement with the Japanese team that they will pay 10% more than the second highest bid- the highest legitimate bid. Is any Major League team shady enough to try such a stunt? Probably not, but we might never know, even if it comes true. If players are going to be moving back and forth, the leagues should set up a unified posting procedure from one team to another rather than from league to league in order to streamline the process in the same way that European soccer teams negotiate with one another.
Prediction: 5 years, $70 million with New York (AL)

1. Barry Zito- Teams will line up to pay for Zito’s durability, consistency, and predictability. He had his Cy Young season, and he had his 2004, which was about as far below his normal level as his Cy Young year was above it. The variation is small and acceptable in either direction. More importantly, several of the big budget teams who look to be in the running for Zito have rotations built around other pitchers signed as free agents, who are therefore older, and often therefore frailer (Yankees- Johnson, Mussina, Pavano, Wright; Mets- Martinez; Red Sox- Schilling, Wakefield). Thus, Zito’s stability may be of even greater value to these teams who do not have many pitchers who are actually still in their prime.

There is the case behind signing Zito. On the other hand, consider that he will absolutely make ace money, even though he stands virtually no possibility of actually pitching at a commensurate level. Looking again at PECOTA, Zito projects to be worth $6.4 million or less in each of the next four years. I might be overrating some of these picks, but I do not think there is any chance Zito will make anywhere in the neighborhood of $6.4 million per year over the life of his contract.

So signing Zito is going to be someone’s mistake. My guess is that it will be the Mets’ mistake, since they have been trying to pry him away from the A’s with varying degrees of intensity for the last two years. Now that the rotation needs even more patching than at any point in the recent past, they will shell out the extra money to remain viable NL contenders, even though that will mean paying way too much money for an innings muncher. Maybe the Mets will win the bidding for Matsuzaka and Zito will end up with one of the other marquee franchises, but I believe that one way or another, the top three players on this list will shuffle between New York, Boston, or Los Angeles.
Prediction: 5 years, $75 million with New York (NL)

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