Write On Sports LLC - "Intelligent Design: Minnesota Timberwolves" by Andrew Berg

Intelligent Design: Minnesota Timberwolves

2006-09-29 18:21:50 | By: Andrew Berg

At the end of the 2005-2006 NBA season, Minnesota GM Kevin McHale faced a difficult reality. The restructuring done before the season had massively backfired, setting the team well out of contention and lacking valuable assets like draft picks and expiring contracts. Kevin Garnett’s new coach, Dwane Casey was supposed to push an up-tempo offense and a reliable defense. The new personnel was supposed to increase versatility, enhancing depth. In reality, the trade for Marko Jaric was a disaster, not only costing a still-valuable Sam Cassell, but a future first-round pick to function as salt in the wound. Since Jaric was nearly worthless all year, the team was left with plenty of injury-riddled and/or ineffective floor generals. Perhaps they could have overcome their perimeter deficiency with dominance inside, though any team relying on Michael Olowakandi is probably in big trouble on that front.

After the team fell to the outskirts of playoff contention, it became clear that they had to make some major changes to improve the way the team plays together, or else Garnett was liable for (and justified in) a catastrophic meltdown. McHale proved to be as proficient as FEMA at bolstering a breaking levee by adding Marcus Banks, Mark Blount, and Ricky Davis as the pieces that were supposed to transform a losing atmosphere by synergizing with the current roster. Banks was not terrible, and I can see why the front office would think Davis could fill the Spreewell role, but the swap did not address any of the team’s pressing needs, so they floundered into a situation were Mark Madsen was allowed to shoot double-digit three-pointers in one game.

The Wolves are in a unique position: Garnett is the centerpiece, and a true superstar, but like any star not named Jordan, he needs the right pieces around him to thrive. Only Philadelphia’s front office has been as inept as the Wolves’ at finding the right complementary pieces in recent years, forcing Iverson out of position and investing too much money in other shoot-first players. Remember that Garnett is basically a really tall small forward. Playing him at center does not work in the way that the Spurs can play Duncan at center because Garnett does not have the bulk or the upper-body strength to survive inside. He is a fantastic rebounder by virtue of his long arms and outstanding anticipation, but he specializes in getting every long rebound, not grinding it out in the paint and fighting with mansters like Brandon Haywood, Jamaal Magloire, etc. Offensively, he has similar tendencies, preferring to start 12-18 feet from the basket and getting his shot from mid-range rather than truly posting up on the inside. These characteristics do not make Garnett more or less valuable per se; they are a part of his game that the front office has to understand when making the rest of the roster.

As a stretched small forward with great tenacity and defensive intelligence, Garnett can thrive at the 4, though trying to put him there next to a small or wandering center has been a recipe for disaster for the last several years. Garnett actually played well next to Olowakandi when Big Stiffy did not get into immediate foul trouble or injure himself. Ervin Johnson worked even better, because he took up space, made opposing centers work on both ends, blocked a few shots, and fought for those inside rebounds that Garnett does not always get. Mark Madsen does not give them those qualities; he is not big or strong enough. Eddie Griffin and Mark Blount, while talented, are wanderers, nomads, vagabonds- roaming the half-court in the same manner as Garnett. They get rebounds with long arms and mobility, primarily block shots off of the ball, rarely body up on either end, and prefer a face-up offensive game. In other words, they imitate Garnett’s game without his dedication, athleticism, and intelligence- their skills are redundant. Having failed to address this hole on the lineup, I cannot endorse the 2006-2007 Timberwolves, not because the Ervin Johnson types are really that good, but because their presence is required to optimize Garnett’s versatility and value.

The guard play alongside Garnett used to mystify me. I always wondered why shoot-first guards seemed to thrive around Garnett- from Starbury, to T-Hud (thud?), to Sam I Am- while he never gelled with the unselfish Terrell Brandon. I wondered why a superstar big-man would want to let others take the shots. After all, size is valuable because it gets a player easier inside shots, where the shooting percentages are much higher than around the perimeter. But once again, we have to remember that Garnett is not really a big-man. His size helps him get better looks at jumpers, better separation on drives, better defensive position, and lots of rebounds. At the same time, he does not have the girth to work inside, so the sort of distributing PG that has thrived with historical big men (Avery Johnson with David Robinson, Mark Jackson with Patrick Ewing) does not fit into the formula. Instead, Garnett’s mid-range game and deferential nature open up the court for guards who want to shoot threes or penetrate. If defenders cannot leave Garnett in mid-range purgatory, the cannot get to the rim to double on a drive, and they cannot close out on off-the-ball picks that open up outside shots. Naturally, a player like Sam Cassell will thrive under these conditions. Similarly, I am cautiously optimistic about both Mike James and Randy Foye, since they embody exactly this sort of offensive game. The caution comes from the fact that James has had one star-caliber season and many average ones while Foye faces what could be a tough transition. I like the pick, though, to the point that I was thinking about the possibility of drafting him as early as last February.

Still, the Timberwolves have too much dreg on the roster to contend in a loaded Western Conference. Marko Jaric, Troy Hudson, Mark Blount, and Mark Madsen give them nothing, but will receive minutes due to their contracts. Going with a backcourt of James and Foye, with Trenton Hassell as the primary sub/defensive stopper, and using Bracey Wright when necessary would yield better results. Up front, Davis will start next to Garnett, which can work as long as Davis keeps his shots to 10 or 11 per game- he is now the third option. Rotating in Justin Reed gives them more defense, and some athleticism, as well. If rookie Craig Smith pans out as a combo 3-4 to be the 8th or 9th guy in the rotation, that means they have a lot of expendable parts. Assuming Madsen and Griffin stay as backups with little trade value, the Wolves could shop Jaric, Hudson, and Blount for a legitimate big man, and an insurance policy at the 2 or the 4 in case Wright or Smith falls on his face.

I was thrilled when I heard the rumor of Jamaal Magloire for Marco Jaric, and I think it would have helped Milwaukee reach no. 5 in the East more than what they got from Portland (where Magloire does not fit anyway). Looking down the list of marketable bigs, the next guy the Wolves ought to pursue is Zydrunas Ilguaskus, a miserable fit next to Lebron, but a solid rebounder who takes up lots of space and plays with his back to the basket. Even though Cleveland may not want to make a big-for-small swap, and they already have plenty of guards, they showed their willingness to go small in the playoffs last year. Additionally, they could use a legitimate point guard, as Eric Snow looks like the guy in the pickup game who disrupts everyone’s rhythm as they carefully avoid letting him touch the ball on offense. More importantly, Ilguaskus does not even see the court in the fourth quarter, and having someone who can handle the ball and turn Lebron’s drives into quality 3-point looks in the clutch is more useful than the world’s biggest cheerleader. Jaric gives them a different look as a G-F combo for those few moments when Lebron is off the court, and a useful long defender against other guard-heavy teams. Hassell could replace Jaric in the trade if Cleveland is not convinced that Shannon Brown is the next big thing on their defense, and Damon Jones could work as a throw-in to the Wolves if the Cavs are worried about congestion in the backcourt.

Failing a big-name acquisition like Ilguaskus, there are a handful of other guys whose inside presence outdistances their reputation, such as Washington’s Etan Thomas (15th among centers in rebound rate) and Dan Gadzuric (9th). Unfortunately, the team already passed on Lorenzen Wright, who fits in that category and would have filled a need on both ends without demanding too much offensively. With Even such a small addition, the Wolves rotation could like this:

PG- James – Wright
SG- Foye – Hassell
SF- Davis – Reed
PF- Garnett – Griffin
C- Ilguaskus/Thomas/Wright - Blount

I believe that such a group has the necessary working parts to possibly get back in the mix for the second-tier of teams in the West. Depending on how injuries and momentum plays out, second-tier can be upwardly mobile, such as last year’s Mavs and Suns, so there are certainly worse places to be. With Garnett entering one of list last 3 or 4 years of superstardom, the team owes it to him to find players who complement him rather than actually making him worse by clogging up the space on the floor which he needs to occupy. McHale is right about one thing- the team is not in need of a major overhaul, but unless he starts understanding his own talent, we might as well thinking about how valuable that 2007 first round pick will be… to the Clippers.

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