Write On Sports LLC - "A Rise or a Collapse?" by David Crowe

A Rise or a Collapse?

2006-09-28 23:13:34 | By: David Crowe

Suddenly, the baseball world is watching one of the greatest – check that – the greatest comeback in divisional history. The Houston Astos have gone from a forgotten, with the only question being the yearly “is this the last time we will see the Rocket pitch?”, to a contender in two short weeks. The analysts, having pondered over Pedro’s Mets or Carpenter’s Cardinals all season, have yet to prognosticate on whether Clemens, Oswalt and Pettitte will defend their National League Championship. I say, its time to give the three pitchers their due and realize that, in the pitching poor National League, they could have the best rotation for playoff baseball. Not to mention, Berkman is having another terrific season and can carry the offensive load. But, before all of that begins and the analysts start reworking their predictions, I think it is important to point to the monumental events, and the comeback, that provides the platform for such debate. It is the greatest point of all.

On the morning of September 20, 2006 (less than 2 full weeks before the season would end), the Cardinals were to finish a three game series in Milwaukee. The Cardinals woke up 8 ½ games ahead of the Astros with only 12 games remaining in the season. The Reds were previously battling to challenge the Cardinals, but were losing steam. The Cardinals seemed to have the NL Central clinched. All LaRussa had to do with his ball club was win two or three of their remaining games and set the rotation for the playoffs. Another playoff run, as it had been all season, was assured.

And then, the Cardinals started playing the games. On the 20th, the Cardinals didn’t score any runs and they lost a seemingly meaningless game to the Brewers. They were still seven and a half games ahead of the Astros and going to Houston. Nobody still considered the Astros in the race – except maybe the Astros.

Berkman started the series against the Cardinals with two homeruns off of Carpenter to lead the Astros to a 6-5 victory. After the game, Berkman commented, “These games are fun. If we can keep that glimmer of hope alive, you love to play games like this.” Afterall, even Berkman knew that they were still 6 ½ games back of the Cardinals and the Astros hopes were fleeting. Granted, Carpenter pitched a complete game in the loss and maybe even bettered his bid for the Cy Young, but the Cardinals offense didn’t score enough to win.

In game 2, the Astros relied upon a Craig Biggio two run single in the bottom of the ninth to match the same victorious score of 6-5. Game 3, much of the same. After losing the lead in the top half of the inning, the Astros’ rookie left fielder Luke Scott’s hit a 3 run homer in the bottom of the ninth. Dramatic – yet still only a brief segment in the media.

Game 4 of the series was to be the Rocket’s last start at home for the season (maybe ever). He pitched well enough through 5 innings -- allowing one run – and kept the game close enough for Houston’s offense to score 4 runs in the seventh to take the lead and win the game 7-4.

Wow! A four game sweep of a division rival! Four games gained in four days. The Astros were 7 ½ games behind the Cardinals at the start of the series and only 3 ½ back at the end (with seven games left in the season). Still, the Cardinals had a commanding lead … unless they kept on losing.

And losing they did. The Cardinals went back home to face the NL West leading Padres (who were in a race of their own for the division and/or the Wild Card). The Padres and Cardinals played the games close, yet the Padres got the better taking 2 our of 3 in the series (only a dramatic 3 run home run by Pujols in the bottom of the eighth of game 3 saved the Cardinals from the sweep). The Cardinals went back home to play the Brewers, in a four game series, and lost the opener last night 9 to 4.

Meanwhile, the Astros just kept winning in Pennsylvania. Stopping, briefly in Philadelphia, the Astos played a makeup game and beat the Phillies. The Astros continued on to Pittsburgh and swept the three game series against the Pirates (capped by Oswalt’s 6th straight victory last night in a 3–0 shutout).

Entering the final weekend the Astros find themselves ½ game out of first place and winners of their last 9 games.

This weekend the Cardinals continue their series against the Brewers and the Astros go to Atlanta. And, the NL Central is now a race.

It’s been dramatic. It’s been fast. It’s been unexpected. But, it’s also been historic. On what could be know as the “Collapse of the Cardinals” or the “Rise of the Astros” its time to define what this comeback means. And as always in baseball, the comparisons have to be through history. And the question is: Has any comeback been as amazing?

In order to ascertain the perspective, lets look back at five of the greatest divisional comebacks of all time to get a better idea:

1.) Most recently, in 1993 the Atlanta Braves were at a 10-game deficit on July 23 with a 55-42 record before going 49-16 in the final 65 games to win the N.L. West division over the Giants by one game.

2.) In 1978 the New York Yankees trailed by 14 games in the A.L. East division on July 20 with a 48-42 record. The Yankees won 52 of their remaining 73 contests including a one-game playoff over the Red Sox to win the AL. East with a 100-63 mark.

3.) In 1973 the New York Mets were 11 ½ games behind the Cardinals in the N.L. East division on August 5 with a 48-60 record. The Mets finished the year with a 34-19 record in the final 53 games while the Cardinals suffered to a 20-31 mark during the same span.

4.) In 1951 the Giants trailed the Dodgers by 13 games on August 12th, and Dodger and Giant fans would remember (in much different ways, of course) the “Miracle of Coogan’s Bluff” and the shout of “The Giants win the pennant, the Giants win the pennant!” when the Giants, on the final day the season, overtook the Dodgers with “The Shot Heard ‘Round the World” (trust me, it still hurts being a Dodger fan – even I wasn’t even alive at the time – I just hate knowing it happened).

5.) 1942 St. Louis Cardinals held a 10-game deficit on August 5 with a 62-39 mark, but won 44 of their last 53 games and overtook the Dodgers by two games to win the N.L. pennant.

These historic comebacks were amazing. All of them. And, all of them in the lore of baseball history.

However, quickly notice the time it took the teams to come back in the race. The Astros are looking to do the same in 2 weeks, not the two to three months it took the other teams. In history, there is no way to quantify how fast the Astros have risen.

Unfortunately for the Astros, the final series of their season is not against the Cardinals. The Astros will not be able to have a single moment etched into our collective conscious. There will be no “Shot Heard ‘Round the World,” and unfortunately the awesome comeback may not be remembered as nothing more than “The Cardinal’s Collapse.”

Fair? Yes, sure it is. In baseball, you can’t do that badly at the end of the season and be legitimate. It’s just to poor of a showing on the Cardinal’s behalf. It’s embarrassing.

If the Astros have the chips continue to fall their way at the end of the season, their pitching staff is unquestionably good enough to challenge for the World Series. The National League title could be a cakewalk for the Astros – every other pitching staff is questionable at best. And, if the Astros can set their rotation for the World Series, they's be dangerous (after all, Houston hasn’t lost since September 19th).

We’re watching history. Of all the things in baseball this season, this may be the greatest. And, who wouldn’t like to see more of the Rocket in the post season? Isn’t baseball great when so much comes down to the final weekend? Should be a fun.

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