Write On Sports LLC - "Lies, Damned Lies..." by Dante Carnevale

Lies, Damned Lies...

2006-09-23 18:34:09 | By: Dante Carnevale

I am not anti-progress. I believe in forward thinking, not only in sports but in the political and social realm. I view the permeation of sabermetrics, and the other baseball sciences, into Major League Baseball’s front offices as a positive progression.

But beyond my verve for thoughtful growth, above all else, I try to be rational. So when I was listening to Boston’s sports talk radio station WEEI on my morning commute and heard someone from Baseball Prospectus talk about how Derek Jeter is one of the two or three worst defensive shortstops in baseball, I took a step back.

And when I heard the same guy, a supposed expert on the subject who has devoted countless hours to unbiased scientific study, discuss the 2005 AL MVP race and offer something like, “I just can’t see how a ninth-inning, walk-off home run by David Ortiz is any more valuable than a first-inning Alex Rodriguez home run that gives the Yankees an early lead,” I almost veered my truck off the road in disbelief.

Sometimes, just like my liberal brothers, these stat guys take the point too far, bringing their argument to the extreme left and damaging the credibility of the entire movement.

When Spike Lee says that it’s not farfetched to think the American government, during Hurricane Katrina, deliberately exploded the dam in New Orleans so as to destroy the black population of the city, as he did on HBO’s Real Time this fall, right-minded, middle-of-the-road Americans scratch their heads and think, “Geez, these liberals are nuts. I’m glad I voted for Dubya.”

And in the sports world, the assertion that Derek Jeter is a poor fielder brings the same kind of response from the rational fan: “How can anyone who has seen Jeter play over the past ten years really argue that he’s a poor fielder?”

Why? Because his range zone is smaller than average? So maybe Jeter doesn’t get to as many ground balls as other smaller, quicker shortstops. The guy still makes a ton of great plays, most notably in the clutch, and he is solid enough on the routine grounders.

The point is that sometimes the numbers we pore over, which are supposed to hold the key to all of baseball’s mysteries, can be misleading. Something like range zone, which takes into account the amount of ground balls a player fields, can be skewed by the number of sinkerball pitchers on the team and a myriad of other factors.

Even with all of today’s technology, the best judge of a player’s worth is still the discerning eye and mind. More so than a computer or calculator, a good baseball man can see a player’s body type, what he is like under pressure, how he conducts himself.

A good baseball man, or even the average fan, can see that Jeter has nerves of steel, and if you need someone to play shortstop for you in one game against a team of aliens with the future of human civilization at stake, Jeter, deficient Baseball Prospectus rating aside, could very well be your man. To me, progress means taking the best of what we had in the past and adding to it, not completely throwing out traditional notions in lieu of the flavor of the month.

For another example, while the notion that there really is a clock in baseball—the 27 outs—and that those outs should never be given away, sounds good and for the most part is correct, does that mean that a sacrifice bunt is not useful?

The 2002 World Champion Angels liked to bunt and run a bit. So did the ’03 champion, the Marlins.

The Red Sox got past the Yankees in 2004 largely because they gambled with one of those 27 outs with Dave Roberts’ famous stolen base. And Ozzie Guillen, manager of the 2005 World Champions, has been known to put on a play or two. So despite all the research done to suggest otherwise, there will always be a place for the “old school” tenants of baseball.

Talent evaluation and strategy theory aside, the most frequent time that stats studies lie is when they overlook the most influential thing in sports: the human element.

On the same radio segment where I learned that Jeter can’t field and that the ability to continually hit walk-off home runs isn’t really that valuable, I learned that Alfonso Soriano can’t hit outside of Texas. Isn’t that the same Soriano that starred in the AL East with the Yankees? The same guy who hit the huge home run off Curt Schilling in Game Seven of the 2001 World Series? Isn’t he the same perennial stud who carries the telephone poll to the plate?

OK. So he may have had a bad year hitting on the road. Does that means he’s all done and can’t leave Arlington if he hopes to have any more productive years? I think not. Couldn’t it be that Soriano just had a slightly off year on the road and maybe a few more of his road line drives were caught than in the past?

In 2005, Edgar Renteria, the four-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner, had an off year where he still scored 100 runs and drove in 70, while playing in a new town in what is widely regarded to be the most intense atmosphere with the worst infield surface in baseball. Yet Baseball Prospectus will have you believe he’s all done at 30. Couldn't it be that Renteria, who was banged up all year, just took some time to get comfortable playing in Boston?

It happens. Players have off years. All the stats in the world can’t convince me that Renteria is all out of good baseball. Because it just doesn’t make sense—it’s not rational.

In an effort to turn baseball into an exact science, the stat guys often overlook the human element. They’ve tried to make baseball into a math problem, but sometimes two and two makes five instead of four, and no amount of number crunching can explain that. What people who didn’t play the game don’t realize is that sometimes, you can’t explain why things happen, why a player has an up or down year. A lot of it has to do with the player’s frame of mind or their level of confidence at the time, things that can neither be quantified nor predicted. And a person’s confidence level is fickle, with a key extra base hit, or even a memorable encounter with a groupie, being enough to get that swagger back.

While detailed analysis of statistics is useful, people who played sports at even a semi-competitive level realize that intangibles are often what determine a winner. Positive thoughts, momentum, the crowd, the player’s home life—these are all things that cannot be measured, but are the ingredients that often determine success or failure.

Progress is a great thing, and the way baseball has been stripped down and studied recently has taught us a lot. On-base percentage is a great tool, and Billy Beane is a pre-eminent general manager.

But let’s not get carried away. Four rings and a Hall-of-Fame highlight reel of great plays say Jeter is just fine at shortstop and the last four World Series champions say the sacrifice bunt shouldn’t be phased out.

Editor’s Note: This article was originally posted on December 14, 2005 on Mr. Carnevale's site http://americansportsdigest.com/sports/baseball/story.php?p=34. In support of his arguments, as of September 22nd, Soriano has had a great season batting .293 on the road and Renteria has come back batting .290, scoring 93 runs and stealing 17 bases.

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