Write On Sports LLC - "Football Week 17" by Tom Zuck

Football Week 17

2007-12-29 21:01:58 | By: Tom Zuck

So last night a bunch of us who went to high school together went out to dinner. It was a fun and boisterous evening. We had Pitt, Notre Dame, Ohio State represented as well as two Indiana University of Pennsylvania grads and also an Alabama fan in the crowd; it was quite loud at times.

We did catch the end of the Central Michigan v. Purdue game and that was exciting. It was nice to see that defense was a priority (51-48 final score). If the CMU coach gets the WVU job at least for the Hoopies there won't be any change in their defense.

After the last couple of weeks none of the guys could attack me for being a Pitt guy. It's been a nice month to be a Pitt fan. Basketball is moving along nicely and football has picked up a lot of momentum following the win over WVU. I must give a shout out to J.R. Ambrose.

You all have read me giving him the business because J.R.'s Duke football team has stunk over the years. But J was in the crowd at Madison Square Garden last week when Pitt beat Duke. And he was rooting for Pitt. That deserves a big Hail to Pitt!

The first week of bowl games has been tough. I knew they would be. Navy and Boise State bummed me out. Navy came alive too late to beat Utah. The bad no-call on the fumble was terrible and that had an impact, but Navy should have done more early in the game and then it wouldn't have mattered. But it is sad to see an officiating crew have to write a letter of apology for missing the call.

Boise was way out of sorts in the first half against East Carolina. The Broncos, like Navy, awoke too late and then lost. East Carolina was impressive though. And Skip Holtz had a terrific game plan with mobile quarterback Pat Pinkney and Chris Johnson who set an NCAA record with 408 all-purpose yards. Pinkney caught Boise off guard and then Johnson beat them up. All told, heading into tonight's Texas-ASU game I am 3-4. I hope to do much better but there are some very difficult games to pick.

The games will start to get better and better now as we get closer to the LSU - OSU game Jan. 7. It does stink though that the championship game is nowhere near Jan. 1.

Anyway, on to the picks...

Meineke Car Care Bowl
UConn (9-3) vs. Wake Forest (8-4)
Charlotte, NC, 1 p.m. Saturday, ESPN

Wake Forest just hasn't captured last season's magic but the Demon Deacons did do something they have never done; go to a bowl game in consecutive seasons. This season has been magical for the Huskies. Nobody thought they'd be here, let alone hold a share of the Big East title with WVU. This game features two quarterbacks who make plays. Wake's Riley Skinner has a nice completion percentage, over 70%, but he has thrown too many interceptions this season. UConn's Tyler Lorenzon is solid, but not spectacular. Wake needs to find a way to cure its anemic pass rush because UConn can pound you with the run and then mix in the pass. If UConn gets the running game going they can win. Wake's defense makes a lot of big plays in the secondary. This one won't be pretty and you wonder if UConn has gotten over the butt-kicking it got at WVU. I say the Wake defense makes a few more plays, Wake, and our boy Matt Hartford, wins. Go Deacons!

Liberty Bowl
Mississippi State (7-5) vs. UCF (10-3)
Memphis, Tenn., 4:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN

This year was supposed to be it for Sylvester Croom at Miss. St. but that all started to change with the win at Auburn. State plays some nice, very aggressive, defense. But late in the season the bulldogs had trouble stopping the run, which is not a good thing with UCF because they have Kevin Smith, who is just 180 yards behind BARRY SANDERS on the single-season rushing list. Former Notre Dame hire George O'Leary has resurrected his career, and the UCF program. Basically this game hinges on Miss. St. not letting Smith run wild. UCF has won six straight but I am going to go out on a limb and say that Croom and his guys have the defensive problems fixed. Bulldogs in a tough one.

Alamo Bowl
Penn State (8-4) Texas A&M (7-5)
San Antonio, TX, 8 p.m. Saturday, ESPN

These two teams played in this game in 1999 and in that game A&M was tailor made for the Nittany Lions. The Aggies are a bit more balanced on offense this time but Penn State has a terrific defense. A&M must get pressure on Anthony Morelli. And the pro-Aggie crowd must make it loud and difficult for him because he is prone to making mistakes. Penn State must get the running game going and at times this year they have. The Aggies played four ranked teams to close out the season and lost to three but they also upset Texas. PSU is coming off a bad loss to Michigan State. Texas A&M must use backs Jorvorskie Lane and Mike Goodson as much as QB Stephen McGee because it's very hard to run on PSU. There is a lot of turmoil at PSU with players being suspended but A&M is playing for an interim coach. Joe Paterno gets his teams ready to win bowl games and this year will be no different. Since, and including, the 2000 season Pitt has one more victory than Penn State, I don't want to do it but I am picking Penn State to even that record.

Independence Bowl
Alabama (6-6) vs. Colorado (6-6)
Shreveport, LA, 8 p.m. Sunday, ESPN

How the heck do you pick this one!? Both teams are strange this season. Alabama started out well with the excitement surrounding Nick Saban. 'Bama started out 6-2 but stumbled down the stretch and if they lose this game will have accomplished back-to-back losing seasons for the first time in 45 years! This is Alabama's 55th bowl game, that itself is amazing. Like Alabama, Colorado has stumbled down the stretch losing four of six. Look for the 'Bama defense to attack Colorado QB Cody Hawkins, and get to him. Maybe 'Bama QB John Parker Wilson is inspired because Joe Namath FINALLY earned his undergraduate degree from Alabama and gets back on track to end the four-game losing streak. 'Bama wins.

Armed Forces Bowl
Cal (6-6) vs. Air Force (9-3)
Fort Worth, TX, 12:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Has another team fallen as hard as Cal this year? You'd have to make a great argument to say so. The Bears were a thrown away pass and field goal away from a chance at being #1 in the country. Instead Cal went on to lose six of the final seven games. Air Force is flying high with the most wins since the 1998 season. The Falcons have gotten back to running the ball too. Cal needs its playmakers to start making plays again. That includes a banged up QB Nate Longshore and RB Justin Forsett and DeSean Jackson. If they do the Bears have too much for Air Force. The Falcons rush for almost 300 a game and they need to if they want to keep Cal's offense on the sideline. I am rooting for Air Force but I think Cal gets things turned around; Bears win.

Sun Bowl
Oregon (8-4) vs. South Florida (9-3)
El Paso, TX, 2 p.m. Monday, CBS

When Dennis Dixon was in uniform and taking snaps Oregon could beat anyone. Without him the Ducks have tried three different guys and none has really worked. Oregon can run the ball but if there is no threat to pass, or have the QB run, South Florida will stuff the line and target Jonathan Stewart. Oregon has lost three straight too, so they are hurting. South Florida has bounced back from its own three-game losing streak and closed the season with a win over Pitt. Matt Grothe is great fun to watch but this year he has been prone to making BIG mistakes. He has been sacked 24 times and thrown for 12 INTs compared to 13 TDs. I also don't like a QB who runs for more than my top back, unless we are talking about Tommy Frazier or Jamelle Holloway. I want to see Mike Ford carry the ball like he was supposed to. The loss of Dixon and South Florida's aggressive defense is too much, Bulls win.

Humanitarian Bowl
Fresno State (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)
Boise, ID, 2 p.m. Monday, ESPN2

Georgia Tech is another team with an interim coach. Fresno State has long-tenured Pat Hill. When Tashard Choice rushed for over 140 yards the Yellow Jackets won. When Tech lost he was well under 100. So it's clear that he must run, and run well. Fresno is a scrappy team but they lost the big games this year; A&M, Oregon, Boise and Hawaii. This is a good time for the Bulldogs to get a signature win. Tech's defense is wicked against the run but the Clemson game was their top victory. I'm not a huge fan of Tech but I just see the defense making more plays, and Choice getting his yards. The Choice is Tech.

Music City Bowl
Kentucky &-5) vs. Florida State (7-5)
Nashville, TN, 4 p.m. Monday, ESPN

How ironic is it that FSU is in the Music City Bowl when a huge chunk of the Seminoles' roster got busted for cheating on a Music History test.online no less! Seriously.how dumb do you have to be!? I have always liked Florida State and how Bobby Bowden built the program by playing anyone, anywhere. But despite all the off-season coaching changes the Seminoles are still a wreck. Amazing! Kentucky's Andre Woodson is very good and I suspect he will get back to his mid-season form where he threw 36 TDs to 10 INTs for over 3,300 yards. I really like him. Add to that FSU's bad secondary and things are not looking good. I hate to kick a sleeping dog but Kentucky wins this one.

Insight Bowl
Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)
Tempe, AZ, 5:30 p.m. Monday, NFL Network

Indiana did a great job this year under terrible circumstances. Oklahoma State shows flashes of top play but then falters. This is not an easy game to pick. Indiana had a rough three-game stretch with losses to MSU, PSU and Wisconsin but finished with a tough victory over in-state rival Purdue. Indiana scores a lot of points. The Cowboys can score a lot too, but in the biggest game this year, OU, they did not. Ok. St. can't really stop the pass so that will be a big key. The Cowboys can run the ball and aside from QB Zac Robinson they have two very good backs in Dantrell Savage and Kendall Hunter. If the Cowboys run I say they will win. Oklahoma State in a wild one.

Chick-fil-A Bowl
Auburn (8-4) vs. Clemson (9-3)
Atlanta, GA, 7:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN

I liked this game when it was just called the Peach Bowl. But no matter what it's called this could be the most exciting of the season. Both teams will bang hard. Auburn can run the ball and so can Clemson. Both teams have big and fast defenses that can knock your block off. So what decides it? QB play will be a key. Clemson's Cullen Harper has been very good this season and Auburn's Brandon Cox has..not. Auburn's running attack is a bit stronger in my view plus Clemson will be without a couple starting linebackers; that's a big deal. Every time Clemson has had a chance to join the nation's elite they have failed. The Tigers of Clemson have lost to Ga. Tech, Va. Tech and Boston College. The SEC is stronger than the ACC too, so take that into consideration. Auburn has won 12 straight over Clemson, including this game in 1998, make it lucky 13, Auburn's Tigers win.

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