Write On Sports LLC - "The NFL's Contenders and Pretenders through Week 6" by Troy Somero

The NFL's Contenders and Pretenders through Week 6

2007-10-22 19:12:03 | By: Troy Somero

As the seventh Sunday of the NFL season approaches, there are a handful of teams that have separated themselves from the rest of the pack in the race to Super Bowl XLII in Glendale, Arizona in February.

The high-flying New England Patriots look to be the biggest threat to go 16-0 in the regular season since the 1998 Denver Broncos, who started the season 13-0 before a Week 14 loss in the Meadowlands to the New York Giants. The 21st Century rivals of the Patriots – the Indianapolis Colts – have an equally explosive offense, an undefeated record, and a Week 9 match-up with the Patriots in the RCA Dome. In the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers appear to be at the head of the class. Each team is entering Week 7 with a 5-1 record, weak divisional opponents remaining on the schedule, and a solid offense that has the ability to put up points in short spurts.

With these four teams clearly a rung higher on the NFL ladder than the rest of the league, there is a question as to how good the next level of teams is. For argument's sake, this article will attempt to divvy up the six teams in the NFL that have four wins through Week 6. Which of these four-win teams has a shot to knock off their superior conference opponents come January? Which of these teams has too many holes to fill in before playoff time? Which one of these teams will be lucky to get to .500 this season, let alone punch a ticket to Glendale?

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1): Contenders

Out of this six-win group, the Steelers might be the best team. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has already won a Super Bowl with the Steelers, so he has the experience in order to guide the team to the big game again. The Steelers also have a run-oriented offense with explosive running back Willie Parker, and historically teams with a run-oriented offense are able to control the pace of the games they play in and dictate their own game-play tempo. Perhaps the biggest reason why the Steelers should be considered threats in the AFC is because they have arguably the best defense in the conference. Through five games the Steelers have only given up 47 points – that is less than ten points per game. By comparison, the Colts and Patriots have allowed their opponents to score 88 and 92 points, respectively, with one more game played. A strong running attack and a stingy defense are two major ingredients in the recipe for a Super Bowl champion; as of today, this Steelers squad appears to be made of the right stuff to take on the Patriots and Colts in late January.

Baltimore Ravens (4-2): Pretenders

Since their victory in Super Bowl XXXV, the Ravens have had the same problem that has yet to be resolved: a complete lack of offensive productivity. Head Coach Brian Billick has an offensive background, serving as Denny Green's offensive coordinator in Minnesota from 1992-1998. Despite this background, Billick has not been able to get the necessary production from his offense to make the Ravens a perennial threat, and this season is no different. An offense led by Kyle Boller (or an aging Steve McNair, take your pick) is an anemic offense at best. Additionally, the team's point differential through six games is a minuscule ten points, far from the dominance that a team needs to make a run for the Lombardi Trophy. Furthermore, the Ravens' schedule to this point in the season leaves much to be desired, as the team's four wins have come against the Jets, Cardinals, 49ers, and Rams, four teams with a combined record of 6-17. Piggybacking on this schedule argument, the Ravens still have to play the Steelers twice, a second game against a pesky Cleveland Browns team, at San Diego, against New England, against Indianapolis, and at Seattle. If the Ravens can at least split these difficult games then they will have proven themselves a serious contender in January, but as of today Billick's squad is doing nothing but pretending.

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1): Pretenders

The Jaguars have put up gaudy numbers to this point in the regular season, and these numbers have earned the team a place in this argument. A 3-1 division record in the toughest division in football (the AFC South), a 2-0 road record, and a +42 point differential to start the season highlight just how consistent the Jags have been through Week 6. The two-headed running attack of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor has allowed the Jags to mix up their running attack and spell one solid running with another on any down. Schedule-wise, the Jags have a moderately difficult schedule to end the season – games at Indianapolis and Pittsburgh line up next to games at home against Buffaloand Oakland in November in December. However, the major hurdle for the Jags to overcome to make a serious run for the Super Bowl is a mental hurdle that has handicapped the franchise over the last few years: the Jags *always *play to the level of their opponent. While those games against Buffalo and Oakland appear to be winnable (and should be for a team this talented and well-coached), they are in reality just as winnable as the games against Indy and Pittsburgh, because the team plays at a lower level against weaker opponents. Their six-point win at home against Atlanta in Week 2 and their ten-point win in Kansas City against a bad Chiefs team in Week 5 are evidence of their perpetual languid effort against inferior opponents. Playoff football is as much mental as it is physical, and the Jags have yet to prove that they have the mental discipline to be a serious playoff contender.

New York Giants (4-2): Contenders

Who would have thought two months ago that the Tiki Barber-less Giants would be a serious threat in the NFC East? Who would have believed this same statement two weeks ago when a banged-up Brandon Jacobs was on the sideline for the G-Men? Despite these rhetorical questions, the recent success of the Giants alongside the absence of a stud running back for the run-oriented franchise is one of the biggest surprises of the NFL season through Week 6. Eli Manning is finally developing into the Giants' franchise quarterback, Plaxico Burris has kept his ego in check (for the most part), the offensive line has solidified and given Manning the necessary time to make wise decisions in the pocket, and the defensive line has been nothing short of dominant. The main question mark for the Giants seems to be the running game, but the team currently ranks twelfth in the NFL in rushing yards per game (128.8) and the Giants have three running backs who have run for over 100 yards to this point in the season. In fact, the injury to Jacobs may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for the Giants, since they are able to give more carries to Derrick Ward and Rueben Droughns, which provides more flexibility in rushing offense personnel. With a very easy schedule throughout the rest of the season – the toughest game left for the Giants is a Week 17 match-up at home against the Patriots – the Giants can easily slide into place as a serious contender for the Lombardi Trophy in the NFC alongside the Packers and Cowboys.

Carolina Panthers (4-2): Pretender

The Panthers are a difficult team to figure out. Through Week 6, the team has had a weak schedule with no truly impressive wins (their best win might be last week's victory over Arizona), mediocre statistics (15th in points scored, 23rd in total yards), and a huge question mark in the quarterback position (their current starter is the 43 year-old Vinny Testaverde). However, like the Giants, the Panthers have an easy schedule throughout the rest of the season - save games against the Colts and Cowboys - and a multifaceted running offense with DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster both rushing for over 200 yards through Week 6. On the other hand, the Panthers have a low point differential of +13 and a 0-2 home record alongside a 4-0 road record. It is the enigmatic state of the team that will prevent the Panthers from making the leap to contender territory. Teams that win Super Bowls have distinct identities – it is the nature of a champion to leave its own personalized stamp on the league. The Patriots, Colts, Cowboys and Packers all have this defining quality or set of qualities that are well-known throughout the league. In contrast, the Panthers are a team without an outstanding identity. This is the main reason that the team has had so many questions at quarterback, and it will be the main reason why the Panthers are watching the Super Bowl in Charlotte in early February.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2): Contenders

Much like their divisional opponent Carolina, the Bucs are a team that is largely under the radar around the NFL. However, unlike Carolina, the Bucs have proven themselves to be a strong team and an early favorite to win the puzzling NFL South. Most importantly, the team has a proven leader in Jeff Garcia. Although Garcia has been a journeyman quarterback since he left San Francisco, he brings experience and stability to a franchise that has been lacking these qualities since its victory in Super Bowl XXXVII. While the Bucs' offense has been futile at best so far this season, the defense have picked up the slack, currently ranking 5th in points allowed and 12th in yards allowed. Wins over the Panthers and the Tennessee Titans prove that the team has what it takes to win games against tough opponents, a vital characteristic for title contenders. Additionally, the Bucs have no games against other contenders for the rest of the season – their two toughest games left on the schedule are versus Jacksonville and at Houston, two very winnable games. Finally, the Bucs have a coach who has lead them to the promise land before. Jon Gruden is a Super Bowl winning coach who has altered his coaching style since the Super Bowl in order to be more accommodating of the changing needs of his roster. The combination of Gruden's flexibility and experience, when combined with the other aforementioned characteristics, puts the Bucs alongside the Giants and Steelers amongst the group of four-win Super Bowl contenders through Week 6 in the NFL season.

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