Write On Sports LLC - "Can Oden or Durant be the next Duncan?" by Jake Lloyd

Can Oden or Durant be the next Duncan?

2007-05-23 02:36:27 | By: Jake Lloyd

It was only appropriate that Tim Duncan was in action the night of the NBA Draft lottery.

After the ping-pong balls bounced the way of the Portland Trailblazers then Seattle Supersonics, Duncan continued his quest for a fourth NBA title, scoring 26 points, grabbing 14 rebounds and blocking five shots in San Antonio's 105-96 win -- it really wasn't that close -- over Utah in Game 2 of the Western Conference finals.

San Antonio leads the series 2-0, and you won't find many souls outside of Salt Lake City and the other Mormon pockets of this country who think the Jazz will come back to claim the series. In other words, most people have penciled in Duncan for a fourth appearance in the NBA Finals -- and I'm on the brink of hopping aboard the bandwagon.

If you recall, Duncan was the No. 1 pick of the Spurs back in 1997. Alongside David Robinson (remember the shaving gel commercials?), Duncan helped to not only make basketball a topic again in San Antonio, but also bring the city its first championship in just his second season. And he hasn't slowed down.

Can Oden, whom we can just about pencil in as Portland's No. 1 pick, or Durant, whom Seattle will almost definitely take with the No. 2 pick, lead either of those franchises -- neither of which has won an NBA title since 1979 -- out of the dumps? In recent years, the Trailblazers have become known as the "Jailblazers" and the Sonics have been so bad, Seattle's citizens voted not to pay for a new arena, which will likely send the team to Oklahoma City.

But there is hope now, isn't there?

Sure, it's spring, there are flowers and it might even be sunny in the Great Northwest for a day. But don't buy your 2008 (or even 2009) playoff tickets too quickly, Trailblazers and Supersonics fans.

Oden may be dominant. Durant may be amazing. But turning around a franchise with one player is very rare in the NBA, despite Duncan's case.

If you look back at the last 19 No. 1 draft picks, only two have won NBA titles -- that would be Duncan and Shaquille O'Neal (who have a rather tasty seven -- could be eight soon -- between them). And this isn't because there was a great paucity of talent filled by those picks.

Larry Johnson, Chris Webber, Allen Iverson, Yao Ming -- they were all No. 1 selections during that time span, and none of them has held the Larry O'Brien trophy. In fact, only Iverson has played in an NBA Finals.

Granted, most barbershop conversationalists think Oden has more talent than Yao, and comparing L.J. -- no disrespect -- to Durant is like putting Faygo next to Coke. But even the player whom Oden has been compared to the most, Patrick Ewing, was never able to lead his Knicks to a title.

It's not an easy thing to do.

Will Portland and Seattle, assuming they stay sane and make the obvious picks, win more games next year?

Yes.

Will their arenas' seats host more butts next year?

Most definitely.

Will they make the playoffs?

Well, they'll have a better chance with their new youngsters.

But will their stars lead them to a handful of NBA championships, like a certain Duncan?

Don't count on it.

Maybe we should put our money instead on Atlanta, which has the No. 3 pick. After all, a certain No. 23 was drafted third in 1984. And he went on to win six NBA titles.

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