Write On Sports LLC - "Blind Taste Test" by Andrew Berg

Blind Taste Test

2006-09-15 00:36:03 | By: Andrew Berg

I have always wanted to participate in one of those blind taste tests, like Pepsi versus Coke, or Budweiser versus Miller. Like everyone else, I like to think that my taste buds could navigate the flavors and guide me toward my preferred brand. Of course, the abiding potential for failure makes the whole endeavor slightly risky and exciting - that’s why people volunteer to participate (if not the complementary key chains). Maybe I would miss the pick and react with feigned shock for the cameras, but I would not care; it’s all about image! I do not actually prefer Miller or Bud as a beer - I honestly think I have a 50-50 chance at guessing correctly. Still, I restrict my big-name domestic beer purchases to those originating from Milwaukee because I have toured the brewery and thoroughly enjoy the beer-fueled neighborhood surrounding it, not to mention their hilarious “Man Law” commercials starring my favorite athlete, Triple H. My point here is that the variance in the taste test far outweighs the scientific knowledge gained in the mock experiment. Knowing that simple fact, ad agencies still repeatedly relay the results of these silly tests as if they were matters of great public interest or safety. As baseball fans, maybe we can learn something from this methodology, maybe not. Either way, let’s check out the National League Cy Young race with no names attached:

Innings Pitched
Pitcher 1: 199.7
Pitcher 2: 207

Wins/Losses
Pitcher 1: 14-6
Pitcher 2: 15-6

ERA
Pitcher 1: 2.84
Pitcher 2: 3.00

K/9
Pitcher 1: 7.39
Pitcher 2: 6.65

BB/9
Pitcher 1: 1.76
Pitcher 2: 2.04

HR/9
Pitcher 1: .86
Pitcher 2: .65

VORP
Pitcher 1: 65.7
Pitcher 2: 62.9

WS
Pitcher 1: 19
Pitcher 2: 20

SNLVAR
Pitcher 1: 7.2
Pitcher 2: 6.5

BABIP
Pitcher 1: .267
Pitcher 2: .295

There is really nothing substantial to differentiate one player from the other. Player one is probably in the playoffs, player two is just on the outside of the crazy NL Wild Card race, if that qualification tickles your fancy. The only other noteworthy facts are that neither pitcher gives up homeruns, ever, and that neither has any shot at reaching 20 wins. In fact, no National League pitcher has any shot at winning 20 games - Brad Penny leads the league with 16 wins, and he has had a steady collapse going since the All-Star Break. Altogether, the NL Cy Young race really comes down to these two pitchers who have pulled away from the pack, but who do not stand out as historically dominant candidates. In fact, I would prefer any of Houston’s Big Three from last season to either of these gentlemen- Clemens and Pettitte easily out-VORPed these two, Oswalt was right on par, and all three had more compelling roles on a more compelling team.

If you have not figured out the little riddle yet, pitcher one is Chris Carpenter, and pitcher two is Brandon Webb. They are so evenly matched that some of the best analysts in the business have thrown up their hands in frustration, putting off a voting recommendation in hopes that the last the weeks will provide some separation. Joe Sheehan concluded that he, “can’t pick a winner at this point,” while Rob Neyer says that “Webb and Carpenter are now engaged in a two-man, two-week death match, only one left standing at season's end.” Sheehan’s analysis focused on the incredible statistical similarity between the two, while Neyer spent more time looking at voting tendencies, finding that neither candidate stands out in the pitching triple crown categories of wins, ERA, and strikeouts. I am not satisfied in pointing out that the two pitchers are extremely close in the race and leaving it at that, so instead of looking at how similar they have been to this point, let’s examine what is coming in the near future, in that “two-week death match.”

Since St. Louis is in the thick of the playoff hunt and cannot afford to start resting their players now, so Carpenter will probably make all of his remaining scheduled starts. Arizona, on the other hand, is probably out of the race, but Webb’s youth and relative health make him a good bet to stay in the rotation from here on out. If the Cardinals do not clinch by the final day of the season, Carpenter could make a fourth start against Milwaukee on October 1, as his turn would be up with no disruptions to the rotation. The more likely scenario is that Carpenter will make three more starts, one against SF in St. Louis, one at Houston, and a final outing versus San Diego. Webb has a similar forthcoming schedule, but a slightly greater chance of making that fourth start, a home game against the Padres in the third to last game of the season. His other games are Colorado at home, and San Diego and San Francisco on the road. Unless one of the two misses a couple of starts, the schedule does not seem to give either one a distinct advantage. Really, the similar match ups from here on out only reinforce the players’ comparability.

So how can we possibly make the choice? Remember the biggest factor at play in choosing between seemingly indistinguishable competitors: the image. Ezra Pound says that, “the image is more than an idea. It is a vortex or cluster of fused ideas and is endowed with energy.” It is precisely that energy that can carry one player over the other, and for two reasons, I think Webb has the advantage.

First, Webb has been considered a Cy Young contender all year, dating back to a series of strong starts in April. He has kept himself in voters’ minds long enough to make the leap from solid starter to superstar starter, and he has several definitive appearances to serve as microcosms for the season, including a recent one-hitter. Carpenter has generated more buzz recently, but he has undoubtedly been a late-comer to the Cy Young discussion, and I believe that he loses points in some voters minds for coming out of the blue in the second half, even if his total numbers measure up.

Second, voters seem to shy away from giving players consecutive awards before they have attained immortal status in the league. Bonds won 3 MVPs out of 4 in the early ‘90s and four straight in the early ‘00s, and Johnson, Maddux, Clemens, and Pedro have all won multiple Cy Young awards. On the other hand, many very good players have been denied back-to-back awards who may have been qualified, but had yet to enter the pantheon occupied by the likes of Pedro, Barry, RJ, etc. Take Santana, for example, in 2005. Clearly more qualified than Bartolo Colon, the voters denied him a second consecutive Cy Young, choosing instead to spread the love to the west coast. Perhaps Colon’s extra wins confound the discussion enough to muddle up the motivation, and maybe Santana was unduly punished for missing the playoffs, but it seemed to me that he was definitely the victim of a mindset that rewards fresh faces. No, these may not be the best reasons to choose one player over another, though I believe that both factors will weigh on voters’ minds and ballots. I believe that Webb will ultimately take the NL Cy Young barring a total meltdown in performance, largely due to image considerations.

Without a clear distinction in stats, the voters are left somewhat blind, and as Leslie Nielsen says, “like a blind man at an orgy, I’m going to have to feel my way around.”

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