Write On Sports LLC - "Important Numbers for the Final Four Teams" by Troy Somero

Important Numbers for the Final Four Teams

2007-03-26 23:18:21 | By: Troy Somero

It is safe to assume that teams that advance to the Final Four advance this far in the NCAA Tournament because they are efficient with the basketball. Obviously, a team that shoots the ball well from all areas of the floor, plays sound defense, and controls the pace of the game will be an easy pick to advance to the Final Four. After crunching the numbers from the first four rounds of the Tournament it is quite clear that Florida, Georgetown, Ohio State and UCLA are four of the most efficient teams in college basketball. It would not be a stretch to say that the major reason why these four teams are in the Final Four is because of their efficiency. With this said, it is also clear the most efficient team remaining in the Tournament should be the favorite to leave the Georgia Dome next week with an NCAA Championship under its belt. Therefore, in order to determine which team remaining in the Tournament is the most efficient, this article will compare the four Final Four teams across an array of efficiency-related statistics in order to determine which team should leave Atlanta with the 2007 title.

Offensive Tempo Efficiency

This first category is the compilation of two statistics highlighted by statistician Ken Pomeroy on his website kenpom.com: offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage.

Offensive efficiency (points-per-100-possessions) is pretty straight forward: the number of points a team scores for every 100 possessions. This statistic is useful because it does not discriminate based on a team's offensive pace. For example, Georgetown plays at a much slower pace than the other three Final Four teams, so its average points-per-game does not take into account how efficient its offense is. Points-per-100-possessions does take efficiency into account.

The other statistic under this category, effective field goal percentage, gives a little less weight to three point field goals (EFF FG% = (.5 x 3FGM + FGM) / FGA), which is effective in the case of these four teams because they have attempted an astounding average of 24 three-pointers-per-game during the first four rounds of the Tournament. When taken together, these two statistics demonstrate just how efficient a team's offensive style of play is, regardless of whether that style of play involves fast-break offense or set pieces revolving around the three-point arc.

After viewing these two statistics it is interesting that the teams with the two styles of play that contrast the most are also the two most efficient teams in the Final Four on the offensive end. Florida, which likes to push the tempo and rely on shots either in transition or early in its offensive sets, has an offensive efficiency of 119.0 and an effective field goal percentage of 59.5% on the season through Sunday. Georgetown, which utilizes a more methodical Princeton offense, has an offensive efficiency of 116.4 and an effective field goal percentage of 57.0% on the season through Sunday. Their two opponents, UCLA and Ohio State, have respective offensive efficiencies of 110.4 and 114.5 and respective effective field goal percentages of 53.9% and 54.1%. Thus, if the two semifinal games come down to the wire, Florida and Georgetown have to be the two favorites to advance to the National Championship based on these numbers because of their collective ability to score more frequently and shoot the ball better from any part of the field.

Percentage of Field Goals Attempted from Three-Point Range

An aphorism in college basketball that has existed as long as the three-point line is, "live by the three, die by the three". While effective field goal percentage takes into account three point field goals, the fact remains that it is much more difficult for a college basketball player to make a 22-footer than a 15-footer. One night of poor three-point shooting will do any team in if it relies too much on the three-point field goal. While Florida and Georgetown are similarly efficient on offense, this efficiency does not take into account the fact that Florida relies on the three-pointer more so than any other the other three teams in three Final Four. During its four Tournament games Florida has attempted an average of 46.8% of its field goals from three-point range per game, including 52.5% during the last two rounds. This is a dangerous precedent for Florida because if Lee Humphrey has an off-night (although the chances of this are slim), the team has to either change its offensive strategy or keep tossing up three-pointers in hope that enough go in to win. On the other hand, the almost-as-efficient Hoyas have only attempted 29.0% of their field goals from three-point range per game during the Tournament. This is surprising given the fact that Georgetown's offense in theory is heavily dependant on the three-point shot. Perhaps the reason that Georgetown has attempted fewer threes than Florida, UCLA (30.2%), and Ohio State (36.7%) is because the Hoyas interior game has been so dominate throughout the Tournament. One has to think that this should continue against Ohio State, where the Greg Oden has to compete with both for Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert. On the other side of the bracket, Florida has the size and strength in the paint to take down UCLA if it so chooses, but the question is just how reliant will the Gators be on the three on Saturday.

Free-Throw Shooting

Over the course of the Tournament all four teams have similar free-throw percentages, ranging from Georgetown's low of 69.0% to Ohio State's high of 75.4%. However, the key to this statistic lies in the two values that determine free-throw percentage: free-throws attempted and free-throws made. Georgetown's relatively low free-throw percentage looks far worse considering the fact that they only have attempted 17.8 free-throws-per-game and made 12.3 free-throws-per-game in the Tournament. UCLA does not fair much better, putting up 19.8 attempts and 14.8 makes, respectively. The two teams that have shined in the category throughout the Tournament are Florida and Ohio State. The Gators have attempted 32.3 free-throws-per-game and have made 23.5, while the Buckeyes fair nearly as well with 28.5 attempts and 21.5 makes. Perhaps one of the most shocking statistics from the Tournament is that in the Elite Eight Florida attempted 41 free-throws and Ohio State attempted 43 free-throws! If these two teams can get to the line at a similar pace against their respective opponents on Saturday night, then all other categories outlined in this article will be secondary to free-throw percentage. This statistic certainly made the difference in two of the four Elite Eight games.

Field Goal Percentage Defense

On Sunday CBS showed a statistic during the Florida-Oregon game indicating that the last five national champions have been amongst the national leaders in field goal percentage defense, a statistic that indicates the effectiveness of a team's entire defense: strategy, shot-changing ability, work ethic, and rebounding. This statistic is also often very telling of how well-coached a team is, as teams with terrific defensive instruction obviously play great team defense. No team in the Final Four has a better team strategy (defense included) than Georgetown, which has held its opponents to an astounding average of 27.4% from the field per game in the Tournament. The next closest team in field goal percentage defense in the Final Four is UCLA, which has posted a 36.1% number that is 33% higher than Georgetown's number. Like John Thompson III, Ben Howland has been celebrated as one of the best coaching minds in the Tournament, and his defensive prowess has been exemplified in the Tournament by the solid team defense played by the Bruins. Florida and Ohio State are a significant leap away from the competitions, having field goal percentage defense averages of 42.7% and 41.7% per game, respectively, throughout their first four games of the Tournament. Florida's field goal percentage defense is over 50% higher than Georgetown's, meaning that Florida opponents make 50% more shots against the Gators than Georgetown's opponents make against the Hoyas in the Tournament. This is certainly a number that should make Billy Donovan nervous in preparation for Saturday night against UCLA, let alone if the Gators win and happen to face Georgetown on Monday night.

Turnover Margin

No statistic is more telling of how efficient a team is with the basketball, both offensively and defensively, than turnover margin. While none of the four Final Four teams have an amazing turnover margin, none of these teams have a negative turnover margin either, indicating that if a team turns the ball over more than its opponent, the opponent will, more often than not, lose the game. In fact, out of the sixteen games that these teams have played in the Tournament, there were only four games where the winning team turned the ball over more than the losing team. With this said, Florida appears to be the most careful with the basketball amongst the Final Four group. The Gators have a turnover margin of +4 per game in the Tournament, which doubles the margin of the second-best turnover margin number in the Final Four: +2 (Georgetown). As has been the theme throughout this article, UCLA and Ohio State fall behind their respective opponents in this statistic as well. UCLA breaks even throughout the first four rounds with a turnover margin of zero, while Ohio State has faired slightly better at +.5 turnovers per game. Protecting the ball is as important in late-game situations as good shot selection and free-throw shooting; the teams that protect the ball give themselves more opportunities to score and thus a better chance to win.

Offensive Rebounding

While scoring offense and scoring defense are both vitally important in determining which team wins a game, if a team can negate poor offensive field goal percentage and uphold quality defensive field goal percentage by controlling the offensive rebounding margin, then scoring offense and scoring defense will fall in line. Although it is not surprising at this point in the article, Florida and Georgetown dominate this statistic as well amongst the Final Four teams. Both teams have averaged 12.3 offensive rebounds per game in the Tournament. Ohio State, thanks in large part to Greg Oden, has garnered 8.8 offensive rebounds per game, while UCLA has collected 7.0. Every time a team grabs an offensive rebound it negates a positive defensive possession. Every time a team gives up an offensive rebound it negates a positive defensive possession. Solid offensive rebounding margin also usually indicates solid defense as teams that prevent their opponent from crashing the offensive boards will invariably have a more positive offensive rebounding margin. It is not coincidence that Florida and Georgetown have both a better offensive efficiency and a better offensive rebounding margin in the Tournament.

To review, the Final Four presents four teams on a national stage that have experience, athleticism, and an ability to win games. It is certainly the case that each team has these characteristics, because if these teams did not have all three of these characteristics then they would not have advanced to the Final Four. In addition, these are four of the most efficient college basketball teams throughout the course of the 64 team tournament. With that said, it is the little things that separate two equally gifted teams in the Final Four: smart decision-making, quality shot selection, ball control, and tenacious defense. After meandering through statistics that exemplify these qualities (or the lack thereof), it is clear that in a close game Florida and Georgetown appear more prepared and more able to win than their respective opponents on Saturday. Should Florida and Georgetown meet in the National Championship, Florida will bring more experienced talent but Georgetown will bring a better game plan. If Florida can set its up-paced tempo early and make Georgetown run the floor, the Gators should be able to negate their slightly worse efficiency and have a relatively smooth path to the title. If Florida allows the Hoyas to stay in the game, Georgetown's style of play will allow them to make better late-game decisions and end Florida's run for back-to-back championship one win short.

No matter what happens on Monday night, one thing is quite certain when looking inside the numbers: players on Ohio State and UCLA will be watching the game from their dorm rooms.

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