Write On Sports LLC - "What Color Will Cinderella Wear This March?" by Troy Somero

What Color Will Cinderella Wear This March?

2007-02-12 22:03:10 | By: Troy Somero

Question: Can you name the "Cinderella"* team from each of the last five NCAA Tournaments? Because of the success of George Mason last March, most casual basketball fans probably do not remember that sixth-seeded West Virginia was one, lost twenty-point second-half lead from advancing to the Final Four in 2005. Fifth-seeded George Tech advanced to the 2004 National Championship before falling to UConn. In 2003 and 2002, Butler and Indiana advanced as far as the Elite 8 and the Championship, respectively, before the clock struck midnight at the ball.

While many teams appear to fit the Cinderella profile when the brackets are announced on Selection Sunday, it is a fact that only one team can be the outright darling of the Big Dance. Although some teams fit profiles similar to those of the 2006 George Mason and 2002 Indiana squads, every bracketologist wants to know how to find that hidden gem that will carry his bracket to victory in the company's office pool this March.

There are certainly a number of middling major-level and mid-major-level teams that are vying to become Cinderella this March. Because there are so many squads that seem to fit the profile, one must first discover what traits Cinderellas of the past have had in order to determine which team is most likely to be the Cinderella of 2007.

First and foremost, Cinderella has years of experience under her girdle. This fact seems to correlate very positively with a middling team making a long run in the Tournament because many teams have a tendency to choke in March. The squads that have experience are able to maintain focus and tenacity, because for many players this Tournament could be their last and upperclassmen want to extend their careers for one more game. George Mason had 8 upperclassmen (3 seniors and 5 juniors) that logged significant minutes last season. West Virginia had 8 (3 and 5), Georgia Tech had 8 (4 and 4), Butler had 15 (13 and 2), and Indiana had 7 (3 and 4). Without experience, Cinderella would not know how to play the field and would thus be just another girl at the Dance.

Secondly, Cinderella needs to be able to handle a long-distance relationship. Many of the Cinderellas on this list got hot early in the Tournament and stayed hot until midnight struck. These hot streaks, however, extended far back into the regular season. While George Mason average a slightly higher than mediocre 35.6% from the three-point stripe last season, West Virginia, Georgia Tech, Butler and Indiana averaged 36.0%, 36.6%, 39.2%, and 39.4%, respectively, during their regular seasons. Each of these teams further exploited this three-point tendency by having offenses geared around the three-pointer. Cinderella will take all the twos she can get, but the three-point shot has a little more cache for her.

Thirdly, Cinderella needs to have a history of scoring and scoring often. Even though Cinderella in the past may have been a low seed, she consistently outscored her opponents throughout the regular season. George Mason and Georgia Tech outscored their regular season opponents by over nine points-per-game (9.3 and 9.4, respectively). Butler and Indiana achieved the same feat by over seven points-per-game (7.3 and 7.9, respectively). Only Cinderella dressed as a Mountaineer outscored her opponents by less than five points-per-game (4.7). Many bubblicious major and mid-major programs enter the Dance with the first two credentials, but a Cinderella who can take it to the goal better than her adversary will be the only girl left at the Dance when all the other bubbles burst.

Fourthly, Cinderella has a history of dancing with the big boys before the ball begins. Four of the Cinderellas over the past five years have a history of playing well against tough, out-of-conference competition during the regular season. George Mason defeated a tough Holy Cross team and lost in overtime at Wake Forest. West Virginia defeated George Washington, NC State and LSU during the 2004-05 season. Georgia Tech knocked off UConn and Texas Tech at Madison Square Garden before winning at Ohio State and at Tennessee. Indiana won against Texas, Notre Dame, and Louisville at home while defeating North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Only Butler did not have a tremendous performance against a solid out-of-conference opponent (with its only major out-of-conference game resulting in an 80-60 loss at Duke). However, more often than not, Cinderella tries on the dress before she wears it to the Dance.

Fifthly, Cinderella wears high heels, and it is not easy to jump in high heels. None of these impressive dream runs throughout the Tournament have been accomplished by a team that was a strong rebounding team. Only George Mason and Indiana had a positive rebounding margin above 2.0, and that was +2.1 for each team. Georgia Tech out-rebounded its opponents by .1 rebounds-per-game during the regular season, while West Virginia and Butler were actually out-rebounded themselves by 3.7 and 2.6 rebounds-per-game, respectively. Cinderella can dance, but she can rarely jump above the rim.

Finally, Cinderella gives to charities often, but not as often as one might believe. These five Cinderellas have been solid free-throw shooting teams, but only one team – George Tech with an 84.7 regular season average – has ever been truly impressive. The other four teams shot 66.2% (George Mason), 74.2% (West Virginia), 71.9% (Butler), and 63.6% (Indiana) in their respective regular seasons. Therefore, Cinderella can spend all night at the ball while spending a little more money on herself than on charity.

Now we have a profile of who Cinderella truly is: an experienced, deep-threat with a high propensity for outscoring her opponent and an ability to get up for big games. However, she is also a B-list celebrity when it comes to foul shooting and a plain Jane in the rebounding category. With this dream girl defined, her characteristics can now be applied to the laundry list of possible Cinderella this season to determine who will be the last Cinderella dancing in late March 2007.

The following is a list of all of the teams that fit the profile of a Cinderella candidate to this point in the season: Air Force, Appalachian State, Butler, BYU, Creighton, Davidson, Duquesne, George Washington, Gonzaga, Hofstra, Holy Cross, Old Dominion, Southern Illinois, Stanford, Tennessee, Texas Tech, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, VCU, Virginia Tech, Washington State, West Virginia, Winthrop, Xavier. Note that Cinderella does not have to be an unranked team (Air Force, Butler and Southern Illinois demonstrate this). In addition, Cinderella can be from a major conference, as we have seen with Indiana in 2002 and West Virginia in 2005. What all of these teams have in common is that nobody is mentioning them in the same breath as the Floridas and North Carolinas and UCLAs as major threats to advance far in the Tournament in March. It is this ignorance that makes these teams possible Cinderellas, and it is this ignorance that makes Cinderella so dangerous once she arrives at the Dance.

First, to weed out the contenders from the pretenders, we need to separate the teams with multiple juniors and seniors from the teams without them. As mentioned several paragraphs above, the one statistic that most positively correlates with a Cinderella team is a high number of upperclassmen on the roster. Using the lowest number of upperclassmen from the Cinderellas above (7 – Indiana) we can create a cut-off point. Every team with 7 or more contributing** upperclassmen moves on to the next elimination round, while every team with 6 or less can keep the gown in the closet for another twelve months. The following teams have less than 7 contributing upperclassmen as of February 11: Davidson (3 seniors, 2 juniors), George Washington (1, 1), Gonzaga (2, 3 – and that does not even take Josh Heytvelt's recent suspension into account), Hofstra (1, 2), Holy Cross (2, 3), Stanford (3, 2), Tennessee (1, 3), Texas Tech (3, 2 – Tech actually has 5 seniors and 4 juniors, but 4 of these players have scored no points and have logged less than half-a-minute-per-game of playing time this season), UNLV (3, 3), Villanova (3, 0), Washington State (1, 4), and West Virginia (2, 2).

Thus, Air Force, Appalachian State, Butler, BYU, Creighton, Drexel, Old Dominion, Southern Illinois, Virginia, VCU, Virginia Tech, Winthrop, and Xavier have the necessary experience to advance far in the Tournament. However, how many of these teams have the three-point touch to compliment this experience? Using George Mason's 35.6% mark from last year as the cut-off point, only Creighton (34.5%) and Drexel (33.9%) fail to have the long-distance assault necessary to win more than a couple games in late March. It is not surprising that only two of the thirteen teams listed above shot below-average from behind the arc, as Cinderellas that live and die by the three in the regular season usually continue that trend in the postseason.

Scoring margin is the next point of separation, but none of the remaining eleven teams in our dance have a scoring margin lower than West Virginia's +4.7 margin from the 2004-2005 season. Therefore, it appears as if the Mountaineers' number is more a statistical outlier than anything else, as the average scoring margin of the other Cinderellas from the past is a stronger +7.71. Now three more teams leave the dance floor early: Southern Illinois (+7.3), Vanderbilt (+6.9), and Virginia (+5.7).

With eight teams left after the third song we move to the tune that probably makes the most noise during the regular season among all of these statistics: major out-of-conference wins. Each of the five past Cinderellas (with the exception of outlier Butler) has picked up at least one quality win outside of its conference during the regular season. All of the teams currently left in this hypothetical dance have likewise had a quality out-of-conference victory this season except for two: BYU, which has no quality wins outside of the Mountain West Conference this season, and VCU, whose best win this season outside of the Colonial Athletic Association is at Atlantic 10 bottom-dwelling Richmond.

The fifth point of separation for the seven potential Cinderellas that remain is rebounding margin. However, as has been seen with our previous Cinderellas, a greater margin of rebounding in the regular season does not positively correlate to Cinderella success in the postseason. In the case of this statistic, a team whose rebounding margin is closest to zero appears to be the most likely Cinderella to advance (as the average rebounding margin of the historical Cinderellas is actually -2.3). Thus, many of the remaining teams are eliminated because their rebounding margins are too positive (above Indiana's highest point in our historical sample of +2.1): Appalachian State (+2.2), Old Dominion (+4.7), Winthrop (+6.7), Xavier (+3.2).

It is definitely bizarre that strong rebounding does not positively correlate with Cinderella-hood in the Tournament, but the explanation for this is not too complicated: while many Cinderellas may have more experience in pressure situations, a better three-point touch, a greater ability to outscore any opponent, and a higher propensity to play well in big games, most Cinderellas do not have the same athletic ability collectively as their major conference opponents. Coaches have a much easier time teaching players how to shoot properly and execute an offense effectively than teaching players how to jump higher than their opponent; therefore, rebounding is largely based on the pure athleticism that middling majors and mid-majors often lack in comparison to the elite programs in America. In addition, the style of play utilized by Cinderellas – long offensive possessions predicated on quality shooting percentages - is rarely positively related to a positive rebounding margin.

Finally, we are left with three teams: Air Force, Butler, and Virginia Tech. What is interesting about these teams is that as of February 11 all three teams are ranked in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches' Poll despite being out-rebounded. While they vary in terms of three-point percentage (Air Force shoots 42.1% while Butler shoots 36.7%), each team outscores its opponents by at least ten points-per-game and each team has several quality wins this season. As for free-throw shooting, Air Force shoots and excellent 76.4% as a team and Butler is not far behind at 75.2%. Virginia Tech trails the two mid-major powers by hitting foul shots at a 67.5% clip. The range for the historical Cinderellas is 66.2% (George Mason) to 87.4% ( Georgia tech) with an average of 72.1%. Therefore, free-throw shooting does not really separate any of these teams because they all fall very closely to the Cinderella free-throw shooting percentage mean.

Does this mean that we will have three Cinderellas this season? Of course not, because as I stated at the start of the article, there can only be one true Cinderella in a given NCA Tournament. Two girls cannot fit into one ball gown, and two teams cannot fit into one Cinderella role. How, then, do we figure out who will be the Cinderella this season? The final separator is stated in the first footnote of this article: seeding.

As of February 11, Joe Lunardi, ESPN.com's resident bracketologist, has Butler listed as a three seed, Air Force listed as a four seed, and Virginia Tech listed as a six seed***. Therefore, if all statistics could hypothetically stay the same throughout the rest of the season, Virginia Tech would be the most likely Cinderella candidate out of these three teams because it would be the lowest seed. While there may not seem to be much separation between a three/four seed and sixth seed, a three/four seed needs to win three games to be considered a Cinderella candidate in terms of seeding, while a six seed only needs to win two games for the same consideration. Additionally, when Georgia Tech's gaudy 84.7% free-throw percentage is factored out of the last statistical breakdown, the remaining four Cinderellas have a combined free-throw percentage of 69.0%, much closer to Virginia Tech's current number than that of Air Force and Butler. Finally, Air Force and Butler are in the national limelight more often than Virginia Tech right now. Every avid college basketball fan likely has either Air Force or Butler advancing far in his or her bracket already, but how many people even have Virginia Tech on their radar? Very few, I am sure, and as we can see from the five Cinderellas in the context of this article, Cinderella usually receives little attention during the regular season but makes up for lost time in the postseason.

Therefore, it appears as if Cinderella will be dance with the Hokies of Virginia Tech this March. While Falcons and Bulldogs make for interesting dates, the Hokies will be the ones with the girl at 11:59 P.M., hoping that the last minute of madness extends all the way from Blacksburg to Atlanta.

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NOTES

* There can only be one true Cinderella in a given tournament. Even though teams like eighth-seeded Alabama and seventh-seeded Xavier advanced to the 2004 Elite 8, Georgia Tech gets the nod here because the team was "under-the-radar" of every expert; few people thought Georgia Tech would advance to the Elite 8, let alone the Final Four. The same goes for Indianain 2002. However, fourth-seeded Syracuse, which won the 2003 National Championship, is not considered a Cinderella because many people believed that Syracusewas capable of such a run prior to the Tournament starting. Thus, Butler receives the honorary title for this particular season.

** Upperclassmen that have actually played and scored to this point in the season.

*** Lunardi has correctly predicted 64 of the 65 tournament teams in each of the last two NCAA Tournaments, so he is the most reliable bracketology expert to reference in the context of this article.

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