Write On Sports LLC - "Tough Super Bowl to Predict" by Troy Somero

Tough Super Bowl to Predict

2007-01-31 14:38:22 | By: Troy Somero

The Super Bowl is without a doubt the most highly scrutinized sporting event in America. With all due respect to various other games and contests, the Super Bowl should be the most highly scrutinized sporting event in America. Close to a billion people will probably watch this year’s game, and many of these billion viewers will be able to tie the success of the winning team to a key turnover, a poorly timed penalty, or the right game plan from the head coach.

It is these three indicators – turnover margin, penalty margin, and time of possession – that will ultimately determine whether the Colts or the Bears walk away with the Lombardi Trophy around 10:00 PM on February 4. How do I know this?

Because these three factors have determined most of the Super Bowls over the last forty years.

Below is a list of the all the Super Bowl winners from Super Bowl I to Super Bowl XL. Each winning team is coupled with its respective turnover margin, penalty margin, and time of possession margin from the big game. A plus sign (+) in front of each number indicates the team has a positive margin in this scenario and a negative sign (-) in front of each number indicates the team has a negative margin in this scenario. For example, suppose winning Team X has a score of +3, -3, +1:02. This means that Team X caused three more turnovers than losing Team Y, committed three more penalties than Team Y, and possessed the ball for 1:02 longer than Team Y. And now the list...

Super Bowl, Winner, (Turnover Margin, Penalty Margin, Time of Possession Margin)

I, Packers, (0, 0, +2:50)
II, Packers, (+3, +3, +11:48)
III, Jets, (+4, +2, +12:20)
IV, Chiefs, (+4, +2, +9:06)
V, Colts, (-3, +6, -2:46)
VI, Cowboys, (+2, +3, +18:24)
VII, Dolphins, (+1, 0, -5:02)
VIII, Dolphins, (+2, +6, +7:30)
IX, Steelers, (+3, -4, +14:34)
X, Steelers, (+3, +2, -1:00)
XI, Raiders, (+3, -2, +6:54)
XII, Cowboys, (+6, -4, +17:14)
XIII, Steelers, (0, +4, +7:24)
XIV, Steelers, (-2, -4, +0:58)
XV, Raiders, (+4, +1, -0:22)
XVI, 49ers, (+3, 0, +0:48)
XVII, Redskins, (0, -1, +12:30)
XVIII, Raiders, (+1, -3, -3:16)
XIX, 49ers, (0, -1, +14:22)
XX, Bears, (+4, -2, +18:30)
XXI, Giants, (+1, -2, +9:18)
XXII, Redskins, (+2, -1, +10:30)
XXIII, 49ers, (0, -3, +5:12)
XXIV, 49ers, (+4, -4, +19:02)
XXV, Giants, (0, +1, +21:06)
XXVI, Redskins, (+4, +1, +7:26)
XXVII, Cowboys, (+7, -4, +2:24)
XXVIII, Cowboys, (+2, -5, +9:58)
XXIX, 49ers, (+3, +3, +3:02)
XXX, Cowboys, (+3, -2, -7:38)
XXXI, Packers, (+4, -1, +9:30)
XXXII, Broncos, (0, +2, +4:50)
XXXIII, Broncos, (+3, -4, +2:56)
XXXIV, Rams, (0, -1, -12:52)
XXXV, Ravens, (+5, -3, +9:52)
XXXVI, Patriots, (+3, +1, +7:00)
XXXVII, Buccaneers, (+4, +2, +14:28)
XXXVII, Patriots, (0, +4, +17:56)
XXXIX, Patriots, (+3, -4, +3:14)
XL, Steelers, (-1, +4, +6:04)

After digesting that list, take a nibble on the following points:

1. Out of the 40 Super Bowl Champions, 31 have had the better statistical margin in two of the three categories laid out above.

2. The four teams in italics won their games despite tying their opponents 1-1-1 in the statistics outlined above. The Dolphins won Super Bowl VII 14-7, the Redskins won Super Bowl XVII 27-17, and the 49ers won Super Bowl XIX 38-16, and Super Bowl XXIII 20-16, respectively.

3. The five teams in bold won their games despite losing to their opponents in the statistics outlined above. The Colts won Super Bowl V 16-13, the Steelers won Super Bowl XIV 31-19, the Raiders won Super Bowl XVIII 38-9, the Cowboys won Super Bowl XXX 27-17, and the Rams won Super Bowl XXXIV 23-16. In fact, the Rams did not win a single statistical category outlined above and still won, and their win over the Titans is widely considered the best Super Bowl in history.

4. Only one Super Bowl winner has committed more turnovers than its opponent: the Steelers in Super Bowl XL.

5. The teams that have committed more penalties than their opponents have won a surprising 18 out of 40 Super Bowls.

6. The teams that have possessed the ball longer have won 36 out of 40 Super Bowls.

7. A common thread that resonates throughout these statistics is that the more one team dominates in these categories overall, the greater the margin of victory is in the Super Bowl.

So what does all of this information mean when applied to Super Bowl XLI? First of all, the team that controls the ball longer and protects the ball more securely will win the game. In addition, among all statistics it appears that turnover margin carries the greatest weight, meaning that a poorly timed turnover will likely make the difference between a win and a loss.

On the other hand, penalties seem to be much less significant than turnovers and time of possession, but they still slightly negatively correlate with Super Bowl winning percentage. Also, it is clear that a team that loses the turnover battle or time of possession battle may still win the game, but its chances of winning are significantly lower than its more efficient opponent.

My basic point, as stated in the preceding paragraph, is that the team that leads in these three statistics is a virtual lock to win the game. However, how can we predict which team will actually lead in these statistics? The best prediction is based on viewing these statistics over the course of the entire season and postseason.

Over their last nineteen games, the Colts have a turnover margin of +.474, a total of 11.79 penalties per game, and an average of 30:00 minutes of possession per game. Over their last eighteen games (remember the Bears had a first-round bye in the playoffs), the Bears have a turnover margin of +.611, a total of 13.06 penalties per game, and an average of 31:00 minutes of possession per game. Therefore, while the Colts are slightly more disciplined in terms of penalties, the Bears are slightly more careful with the football and have possessed it for about a minute longer per game over the last umpteen games.

My pick: Bears 25, Colts 22, in overtime.

I honestly have no clue who will win this game, and the statistics provided in this article indicate that the Bears should be chosen to win by a very close margin. Therefore, I will defy my own mid-season critique of the Bears and pick a group of players to win that includes Rex Grossman (will Good Rex or Bad Rex show up?), Tank ("The Arsenal") Johnson and Brian Urlacher (who once dated Paris Hilton). Scary, huh?

Comments

sport factfinder commented,
"close to a billion people will probably watch this year’s game, and many of these billion viewers will be able to tie the success of the winning team to a key turnover, a poorly timed penalty, or the right game plan from the head coach. " Please don't be a stupid Americano. Do some research. Do you really think the rest of the world cares about a sport they don't understand or play? http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16877331/page/2/ http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/steve_rushin/02/03/rushin0206/index.html http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Super_Bowl "There is a popular urban myth regarding the Super Bowl — that the game is watched in 234 countries by 1 billion people , a fact unlikely to be true considering the time of the event, the lack of popularity American Football has outside of the United States and the fact that those 234 countries would include all 202 sovereign states, as well as states within sovereign nations such as Scotland, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda. While Super Bowl XXXIX in 2005 was available to a potential audience of approximately one billion, i.e. one billion people are in the collective coverage area of the various channels that carried the game, in actual fact it was only watched by 93 million viewers in total, of which 98 percent were in North America"
February 2, 2007 6:58 p.m.

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