Write On Sports LLC - "Comparing and Contrasting to the Super Bowl" by Troy Somero

Comparing and Contrasting to the Super Bowl

2007-01-20 16:42:34 | By: Troy Somero

As one of my readers opined after reviewing my divisional round predictions from last week, "It doesn't seem to matter which prediction methods you use. You just can't rise above your own inherent mediocrity." Be that as it may, I am still performing as well or better in the playoffs than the Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, Seahawks, Chiefs, Chargers, Ravens and Jets. That's two-thirds of all the playoff teams!

Now that the playoff field is down to four teams, my article this week will use a third type of prediction to determine which two teams will end up at Dolphins Stadium on February 4th: compare and contrast. Many people remember comparing and contrasting from middle school English class; however, with the mediocrity of my historical and numerical analyses over the first two weeks of the playoffs, a simple compare and contrast appears to be a better means of choosing this weekend's winners.

The four teams competing in this weekend's playoff games will be compared to their respective opponents in the following areas: passing offense, running offense, "the trenches", running defense, passing defense, kicking, kick returning, coaching, and the "intangibles". These categories were chosen because most of them encompass more than one player/position, and thus are a more accurate indicator of how a team will perform on offense, defense and special teams (for example, a quarterback comparison is useful, but if their receivers drop as many passes as T.O. then the comparison is relatively useless in describing how effective the quarterbacks really are).

New Orleans at Chicago

Passing Offense: Drew Brees versus Rex Grossman. That sentence right there pretty much sums up the comparison. While the Bears receivers compare pretty evenly to the Saints receivers (Muhammad and Berrian are very dangerous deep threats while Henderson and Colston are dependable in the middle of the field), Drew Brees is an MVP candidate and Rex Grossman is…well, Rex Grossman. Additionally, Reggie Bush is a much bigger threat to catch out of the backfield than anyone the Bears can put out into the flat. Advantage Saints.

Rushing Offense

Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson all bring a similar type of between-the-tackles running attack to the Bears ground assault. While versatility is often celebrated in the rushing game, if the Bears can grab an early lead, each of these stylistically similar running backs can be effective in milking the clock. With that said, Deuce McAllister is back after his horrible knee injury last year and is still a top fifteen rusher in the NFL. Also, the Saints have the explosive and multipurpose Reggie Bush, creating a 2007 version of the "Thunder and Lightning" attack that guided the Giants to Super Bowl XXV. Only this version is new and improved. Plus, the Saints have Colgate graduate Jamaal Branch as their emergency running back. Advantage Saints.

The Trenches

It is often said that the game is decided in The Trenches, the area of the line of scrimmage where the offensive and defensive lines collide. In this game, the key match-up is the Saints' offensive line versus the Bears' defensive line (since the opposite match-up is not nearly as interesting). The Saints two offensive tackles – Pro Bowler Jamaal Brown and Jon Stinchcomb – are very solid tackles and have allowed Drew Brees ample time to pick apart opposing secondaries this season. On the other side, the Bears have perhaps the best defensive line in the NFC. Ogunleye, Harris and Brown are All-Pro caliber linemen. The only starter missing is Tank Johnson, and with all the ammunition he keeps in his house he might scare the Saints more than any of the other linemen. Advantage Bears.

Rushing Defense

This season, Saints' opponents averaged one more rush-per-game than the Bears' opponents (26.1 versus 25.1). However, the Saints' defense allowed almost thirty yard-per-game more on the ground despite the small difference in rushing attempts (128.9 versus 99.4). While the two teams linebacking cores match-up pretty evenly for the second layer of rush defense, the dominance of the Bears defensive line should give them an edge in this category versus the Saints' defensive line. Advantage Bears.

Passing Defense

The Bears certainly have the advantage at the cornerback position, as Charles Tillman is emerging as one of the great corners in the NFL. On the other side of the field, Nathan Vasher and Ricky Manning Jr. can hold their own against almost any receiver in the league. The Saints have little to compete with here with two washed-up corners in Mike McKenzie and Fred Thomas. While both teams have very weak safeties (I feel like I could beat any of them on a fly pattern), the Bears get the thumbs up here because of the solid half of their secondary. Advantage Bears.

Kicking

At face value most people would think that the Bears have this category hands-down because of the Pro Bowl season from placekicker Robbie Gould. However, Gould's field goal percentage (90%) is actually lower than the rate at which Joe Nedney made field goals this season (92%). In addition, the Saints had eight times as many touchbacks on kickoffs this season as the Bears and seven more punts downed inside the twenty-yard line. Advantage Saints.

Kick Returning

Two words: Devin Hester. Advantage Bears.

Coach

Lovie Smith has been celebrated as a great coach for turning around the Bears from a woeful team in the 1990s to a perennial NFC power in this decade. Despite this fact, Lovie Smith is not a very good coach, especially in late-game situations. The reason the Bears defense is so solid is because of Ron Rivera. The reason why the Bears offense is so questionable is because of Smith. On the other sideline, Sean Peyton has turned a 2005 3-13 team into a Super Bowl contender in one season. And he is the coach of the year. Advantage Saints.

The Intangibles

The Bears have home-field advantage, which is a gigantic advantage in January in Chicago against a team that has been in a dome for the last month. While the Saints really are "America's Team" this season and any divine intervention will certainly fall on their side, divine intervention is rare in sports and home-field advantage will play a significant factor in this game. Advantage Bears.

My Pick:Chicago 24, New Orleans 23. The teams both match-up very well and all football fans should be excited for the key aspects of this game: the Saints running game versus the Bears rush defense and the Saints kicking game versus Devin Hester. However, when it is all said and done I believe the Bears will pull off a close victory…unless the game comes down to Lovie Smith versus Sean Peyton.

New England at Indianapolis

Passing Offense: A Brady-Manning match-up is never an easy situation to predict in terms of who will have more explosive passing statistics, and this match-up is no different. The Colts certainly have a more explosive passing game when Peyton Manning is playing to his potential, but he has yet to do that in the playoffs throughout his career. On the other hand, Tom Brady is the best playoff quarterback in the NFL hands-down. However, the key in this passing comparison comes down to the receivers. The Colts start All-Pros in Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. The Patriots start two receivers-du-jour. Advantage Colts.

Rushing Offense

Corey Dillon and Laurence Mulroney versus Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai. This match-up might be even tougher to call than the quarterback match-up. Both teams have two running backs that can pound the line and milk the clock. Therefore, we need to turn to statistics. The Patriots ran for thirteen more yards per game than the Colts this season, but the Colts actually had a slightly better yard-per-carry average (4.0 versus 3.9). Therefore, there really is no discrepancy between the two rushing attacks. Advantage None.

The Trenches

Like the category above, there is really no foreseeable difference between the two teams' offensive and defensive lines. Both teams appear to have very strong defensive lines (Dwight Freeney, Booger McFarlane, Richard Seymour, Vincent Wilfork) and relatively no-named offensive lines. The Colts offensive line allowed 101 less sacks this season (89 versus 190), but the Patriots' defensive line had almost twice as many sacks as the Colts' defensive line this season (44 versus 25). Again, I am taking the easy way out. Advantage None.

Rushing Defense

The key to any good rushing defense is the second level of the defense – the linebackers. The Patriots' linebackers are far more accomplished and more impressive than the Colts' linebackers. On the other side, nobody in the Colt's linebacking corps can carry the jock straps of Tedy Bruschi or Mike Vrabel. Advantage Patriots.

Passing Defense

At first glance both teams look pretty even with respect to their secondaries. The Colts have two very solid safeties in Antoine Bethea and Rob Sanders, while the Patriots can only bring an injured Rodney Harrison to the table to make the comparison somewhat respectable. On the other hand, the Patriots always produce smart, well-coached cornerbacks, while the Colts corners (Nick Harper and Jason David) are relative mysteries. A surprise, however, is how much the two teams really differ in terms of passing yards given up per game this season: the Colts gave up only 159.2 yards in the air per game this season, while the Patriots gave up 200.2 yards-per-game. Advantage Colts.

Kicking

On kickoffs, the Patriots have only had four touchbacks this season – the Colts have had eighteen. In the punting game, Hunter Smith is considered one of the best in the game but he only had seventeen punts downed inside the twenty yard-line this season, while the Patriots' Todd Sauerbrun had 27. The tipping point in the kicking game, however, is in the field goal situation. Adam Vinatieri is the most clutch kicker in NFL history and the Patriots were stubbornly stupid for letting him go this past off-season. Even though Stephen Gostkowski has had a marvelous rookie season, he is no Adam Vinatieri. Advantage Colts.

Kick Returning

Ellis Hobbes and Kevin Faulk versus Terrence Wilkins and Justin Snow. Boring! Advantage None.

Coach.

Bill Belichick is the best coach in the NFL and perhaps the greatest coach in NFL history. Tony Dungy is solid coach, but like the rest of his roster he has not proven himself to be a superior performer in the playoffs. Until the Colts beat the Patriots in the playoffs Belichick will dominate this category hands-down. Advantage Patriots.

The Intangibles

The Colts have the home-field advantage in this game, bur the fact that it is in a dome makes home field much less important than it is in the NFC Championship. However, this *is* the Patriots and the Colts. Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning. The NFL Playoffs. Like the coaching match-up, the Patriots will dominate this category until the Colts win and prove themselves in this scenario, whether the game is in the RCA Dome or Market Square in downtown Indy. Advantage Patriots.

My Pick: New England 24, Indianapolis 23. Based on these categories the two teams match-up more evenly than the Bears and the Saints. Heck, the final tally from the categories is New England 3, Indianapolis 3, and three ties. However, in the playoffs intangibles make all of the difference. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady know how to consistently win in the playoffs, while Tony Dungy and Peyton Manning do not. If intangible will put the Bears in the Super Bowl, you better believe they will do the same for the Patriots.

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